Friday, February 23, 2007; Volume 03, Number 08
of the
Japan Considered Podcast
[Listen to the audio file by clicking here]
Clink Links Below for Today's Topics
Good Morning from Beautiful Spring Valley in the Midlands of South Carolina. Today is Friday, February 23rd, 2007. And you are listening to Volume 03, Number 08, of the Japan Considered Podcast.
Thanks for dropping in again, to you long-time listeners. And a hearty South Carolina welcome to those of you who just found the podcast. We’ve been at this now, each week, since mid-November 2005. Around 60 programs, all told. All available for review in the archives. Some of you have been listening since the beginning! That’s a long time in the world of podcasting. Where programs come and go with great frequency. “Pod-Fading,” the phenomenon was labeled early on. By a fellow who seems to have pretty much faded himself now. I’ll try not to.
I'm Robert Angel, creator and maintainer of the Japan Considered Project. And creator and host of this podcast. Each week at this time we consider the longer-term significance of events in the news for Japan's domestic politics and conduct of international relations. We're not a comprehensive news program. We're not even a comprehensive Japan news program! Our ambitions here are much more modest. We focus on only those issues likely to help us explain political and international Japan more effectively. So we have to ignore many really important topics along the way. But plenty of sources for that sort of information exist already.
Progress here continues on migrating the Japan Considered Project website to a commercial server. It's taking, of course, longer than expected. But when it comes to computers, everything does. I now can release the audio file for each program on the LibSyn server. And am about ready to host the transcripts on the GoDaddy servers. But it will be a while longer before we can have the full Japan considered project website up and running. Stay tuned. By the way, the GoDaddy company, in spite of that odd name, provides terrific customer service and a very effective technical support system. That means a lot when a project like this relies so heavily on the reliability of their services.
This week, as usual, the wires from Tokyo have been jammed full of political and international news. It doesn’t stop! More than any single human being can absorb. I try, though. And it’s great fun. We’ll focus today on what I believe to be the most significant domestic political topic: Continuing decline in the Abe Administration’s public approval rating. As some of you’ve already noticed, I’ve been using discussion of this topic to illustrate a broader theme of change in Japan’s central political executive. Well, the decline continues. So, we can continue to discuss its broader significance.
Of course, no weekly program is complete without an inspiring clip of good healthy bluegrass to clear the air, and brighten your day. I’ve got a great one for you this time. But you’ll have to wait until the end of the program to hear it.
Public Approval of the Abe Cabinet’s Performance Continues to Evaporate
Again this week, Japan’s political press was chuck full of reports that public approval of the Abe Cabinet continues to fall. One weekly magazine even claimed his support rate was only 13 percent, and disapproval 71 percent! Certainly extreme, serving more to illustrate the degree to which political opinion polling has become politicized these days in Japan. But even the more conservative Yomiuri reported on Tuesday that their mid-February poll showed Abe’s support had dropped to just over 45 percent. And that his opposition was up to nearly 43 percent. Asahi, of course, reported even lower results.
As we discussed last week, this drop in public approval is serious. Something that Abe and other Kantei officials would be foolish to ignore. Maybe I should say … to continue to ignore. We’re long past the 1990s. Let alone the earlier “1955 System.” During which prime ministers were selected through factional maneuvering within the LDP. Competition based on seniority, and skill at balancing the Party’s various factional interests. Ability to actually exercise the constitutional responsibilities of the office was a secondary requirement, at best. And the ability to communicate effectively with the public considered unseemly! Self-promotion! Showmanship. Or, “theater.”
These days, Japan’s prime ministers are far more dependent on public approval to obtain, and then to keep, their jobs. During the next few minutes, we’ll explore why public approval has become more important. And how this change affects Japan’s domestic politics overall. Even its conduct of foreign relations.
How Diet Members View Prime Ministerial Public Approval Ratings
As a number of you have pointed out in e-mail comments following past programs, Japan doesn’t have a presidential system. Japan’s prime ministers are not directly elected by popular vote. But rather, through majority vote of the Lower House of Parliament. Cautioning me not to over-emphasize the importance of prime ministerial public approval ratings.
Quite true. And an important point, of course. But this parliamentary arrangement doesn’t insulate incumbent prime ministers from concern over public approval. Nor Diet members from concern over incumbent prime ministers’ public popularity. Not any longer, anyway. Indeed, one could argue that fixed-term, popularly elected, presidents have greater leeway in that regard. Since they remain in office until the end of their terms, even after sharp drops in public support.
Let’s consider, for a moment, the interests and motivations of the members of parliament who select Japan’s prime minister. Especially members of the incumbent prime minister’s Party. When they have to face voters in their own constituencies, they have an immediate and personal stake in the public approval ratings of their prime ministers. Nobody in their right mind would choose to stand for election under the banner of a Party whose leader was unpopular with the attentive public. Just doesn’t make sense.
Of course, there are differences of degree here. And some of those differences are important. Considering them may provide insights into the overall process.
Senior LDP Members With Aspirations …
Since competition for Japan’s premiership occurs, realistically, among senior LDP members, serious aspirants for the premiership may have mixed feelings about the incumbent’s public popularity. They’d like to have the job themselves! The longer the incumbent remains, the longer they’ll have to wait to take their turn. So, those senior members of the LDP who’ve been in to measure the Kantei’s windows for drapes might not be as eager to see their prime minister highly approved by the attentive public as other Party members. Though, of course, they can’t come right out and say so. Not until near the end, anyway. This may help to explain the recent public comments of some LDP leaders.
I also suspect that variations in election strategies may explain such differences as well. How the member collects the votes necessary to stay in office.
At present, the Lower House of the Diet has a total of 480 seats. 300 of those seats are elected from single-member districts. The remaining 180 are selected through proportional representation from Party lists. The shift to single-member districts was part of the 1994 electoral system reforms intended to reduce the cost of Japan’s national electoral politics. And thereby – hopefully – to reduce political corruption.
Single-Member District Incumbents
First, let’s consider those elected from the single-member constituencies. Older, long-serving LDP members who grew up under the medium-sized, multi-member, single-vote electoral district system, may still rely on their “Koenkai,” or constituency-level personal support groups, to get out the vote. They also are likely already to have high name recognition in the district. They’re secure as long as they’re able to collect funds adequate to pay the enormous costs of maintaining such organizations. And, as long as they can keep their Koenkai membership large enough to deliver the votes required for single-member district election. These traditionalists don’t need to worry. They’ll continue to rely more on their own “machine.” Just like in the old days.
Rather than worrying about running with the support of a popular prime minister, these traditionalists will be more concerned about the effects of the “reforms” proposed to make him popular. Especially reforms that make it harder to collect the enormous sums required to keep their vote-gathering machines running. And the more intense prosecutorial scrutiny of political funding law violations we’ve discussed on this program recently. These more experienced members, what I’ve described as Factionists, can afford to continue doing business pretty much as they did in the past. Even after the single-district reforms. At least, until the Prosecutor’s Office pays them a call, or until too many articles appear in the press about their “sloppy bookkeeping.”
In contrast are incumbents and challengers in the single-member districts who attract votes by public projection of their personalities, or overall persona. And presentation of their positions on political issues of concern at the moment. These candidates rely much more heavily on contact with their potential voters through the communications media. To win, they have to appeal to a broader spectrum of potential voters. Including the “floating,” or unaffiliated, voters we’ve often mentioned here. The public approval or disapproval of the Party leader and prime minister is much more important for these more modern, or “popular,” candidates than for the traditional Koenkai/factionist candidates. Typical of this kind of candidate are the “Koizumi children” we heard so much about just after the 2005 general election. But it includes a goodly number of longer-serving, reform-minded LDP members as well.
Lower House Incumbents Elected by Proportional Representation
Now, what about those LDP members elected by proportional representation? By virtue of their position on the Party Lists. Their electoral success depends upon two factors. First, their ranking on the Party’s list of candidates. And second, on the number of votes their Party receives in the PR section of the vote. So, it’s obvious that PR candidates will hope to run under the banner of a popular party able to attract more votes. Or at least, not to lose votes because the Party’s leader is unpopular with the public.
But it’s not all that simple. For LDP candidates, their position on the Party’s PR list is as important, if not more important, than the Party’s popularity. And position on the Party list depends upon remaining in the good graces of those Party officials who determine the lists! So, each case is different. In general, though, I think it safe to conclude that PR-elected LDP members are very sensitive to the popularity of their Party president and prime minister. Add to this the hope of many, if not most, of the PR-elected Members to move to single-member constituency election in the future.
Considering all of this, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, his Cabinet, and their supporters in the Kantei, should be taking very seriously this continuing decline in public approval of their job performance. They can be sure it is being closely watched by other members of the Liberal Democratic Party, in both the Lower and Upper Houses of the Diet. As well as the Opposition. And that the situation cannot continue indefinitely.
Of course, Abe and his supporters have no intention of allowing this public approval slide to continue indefinitely. They seem confident that if they focus on doing a good job, their efforts eventually will be recognized. Well, maybe in the long-term. But for an elected official, failure in the short- or medium-term usually means there IS no long-term. Adding to the pressure, the LDP and Opposition parties face a series of prefectural and local elections in the next few months. Elections which will be followed in mid-July by even more important Upper House elections. During which half of the Upper House membership must face the voters. More on the particulars of that election next week, hopefully.
So, it won’t be long before Prime Minister Abe will face public demands from his own Party to “Do Something.” These demands to date have been muted and relatively polite. That can’t last.
It seems to me that he has three options. The first would be to take action that demonstrates genuine prime ministerial leadership. Something fairly dramatic that shows his intention to pursue the political reforms initiated under Prime Minister Koizumi. Though the time may have passed for such a move to do much good. Several measures of this sort are under consideration. But little has been done to date.
The second option would be a major cabinet reshuffle. Through skillful personnel changes Prime Minister Abe could demonstrate that he is actually in charge. Leading. Get rid of cabinet members who have been problematic during their term of service. Bring in new cabinet ministers who would provide better support and be more popular with the attentive public.
This cabinet reshuffle option, however, presents a number of challenges which will make it difficult to implement. First, there will be strong pressure from the most senior members of the LDP to give cabinet posts to exactly the sorts of people that Abe should avoid if he intends to recover his public approval ratings. That is, the more senior, Factionist, members of the LDP who will discourage, rather than promote, genuinely effective political reforms. Rejection of those senior members under current conditions will be even more difficult for Abe than it was the first time around.
In addition, there’s the problem of Abe’s Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yasuhisa Shiozaki. Shiozaki, it seems, is not universally loved, or even appreciated. If the political journalists writing in Japan’s weekly and monthly magazines are to be believed, Shiozaki already has begun making calls, asking for suggestions for cabinet member replacements. Just in case there is a cabinet reshuffle. The problem is, Shiozaki himself is at the top of most of those lists! That’s a message Shiozaki is unlikely to convey to his prime minister. Others who have criticized Shiozaki’s performance directly to Abe have found him unwilling to listen. And it may well be too late now for even this dramatic gesture to have much effect, were it possible. It could well do more harm than good now.
A third possibility is that Shinzo Abe himself decides to turn the job over to someone else, and make as graceful an exit as possible. He’s young, in Japanese political terms. So, another opportunity to assume the premiership in the future is not impossible to imagine. Not for him to imagine, at least. And that’s what would count here. He could become more concerned about his health. The political weeklies regularly carry stories about his delicate physical constitution. A good reason to step aside now. That, and the Good of the Party, of course.
This scenario too seems unlikely. If only because Abe doesn’t seem to be that sort of person. He’s more one to see virtue in “perseverance” than “expediency.” And, it’s even possible that he doesn’t recognize the seriousness of his situation.
Earlier this week, Asahi Shimbun reported that LDP Secretary-General, Hidenao Nakagawa, held a meeting of senior LDP officials to discuss the current political situation. Nakagawa invited former Prime Minister, Junichiro Koizumi, to address the group. And to offer advice to Prime Minister Abe.
According to Asahi’s sources, Koizumi advised Abe and his cabinet to be less concerned about public opinion, and public criticism. To develop “insensitivity” instead. Criticism, Koizumi was reported to have said, is inevitable. So just get on with the job. Odd advice, when you think about it, coming from the man who more than any of his predecessors relied upon high public approval ratings to sustain his premiership. Hmmm.
Speaking of Koizumi, we’ve heard almost nothing from him since his departure from the Kantei. He’s served since, as he said he hoped to serve, as just another member of the Diet. That is, until recently. In addition to his remarks to LDP Secretary General’s gathering, Koizumi was reported to host a dinner earlier this month for his old economic adviser, Heizo Takenaka. Just to cheer him up, it was reported ….
Even more interesting was a recent comment by Koizumi’s most trusted political aide, Isao Iijima. He was speaking Saturday before last in Nagano Prefecture. Iijima was reported to have told his audience that there was no possibility that Koizumi would return to the premiership. Since he had other plans. Other things to do. Iijima’s comments were not widely reported. But the fact they were made at all, and reported, is significant, I think.
Speculation is growing in Tokyo’s political circles that the LDP, out of desperation, will ask Koizumi to step back in to salvage the Party’s reputation with Japan’s public. Skeptics consider such a move unlikely because it’s simply not the way things are done. And because there are so many other senior LDP members awaiting their own turn at bat. But as I noted earlier in the program, Japan’s national politics are being conducted within a new environment. And the LDP must adapt its behavior to those environmental changes to survive. “Zen rei ga nai,” or, “there’s no precedent,” no longer has the explanatory or predictive power it once had in Japan’s domestic politics. Stay tuned. I’ll try to keep you posted.
Well, we’re out of time today. Next week I hope to spend some time discussing the details of the upcoming Upper House election, and possibly some of the intervening prefectural and local elections between then and now. I don’t recall a more interesting, and unpredictable, time in Japan’s politics during the past 40 years. Stay tuned, and we’ll try to make sense of it all.
As always, continue to e-mail your comments and suggestions to me at RobertCAngel@gmail.com. They’ve become a valuable source of information and advice for future programs. You don’t have to agree with the interpretations to have your e-mails read! I’ll continue to work on website migration. Hopefully, by the time we meet again next week all will be resolved.
In the meantime, here’s that snippet of inspiring bluegrass music I promised you. This was recorded in 1983 by the Bluegrass Album Band, and released by Rounder Records. The sound produced by these incredible musicians is as fresh today as it was then. Listen now to Tony Rice, Bobby Hicks, J. D. Crowe, Jerry Douglas, Todd Phillips, and Doyle Lawson – legends all – in “Wall Around Your Heart.” I’ll put a link in the show notes and transcript to the album. Enjoy.
[bluegrass]
Goodbye all. Until next week.
