January 26, 2007; Volume 03, Number 04
of the
Japan Considered Podcast
[Listen to the audio file by clicking here]
Clink Links Below for Today's Topics
Good morning from Beautiful Spring Valley in the Midlands of South Carolina. Today is Friday, January 26th, 2007. And you are listening to Volume 03, Number 04, of the Japan Considered Podcast.
Thanks
for joining us again today, to those of you who are regular listeners
to this weekly program. And a hearty South Carolina welcome to those of
you who’ve joined us today for the first time. I hope the program
meets your expectations, and that you become a regular listener, a
subscriber, or even reader. I’m Robert Angel, creator and
maintainer of the Japan Considered Project. And host of this podcast.
Each week at this time I select a few items in the news from Japan, and
consider their longer-term significance for Japan’s domestic
politics or international relations. Or, as happens so often, for both!
You can find the audio file for this program on the Japan Considered
Project website, at www.JapanConsidered.org.
And, a text transcript, for those of you who would rather read than
listen. Audio and transcript files for past programs are available
there as well.
One listener wrote in to suggest we create and post an index of the topics covered in past programs. A great idea. But one that would take a lot of time to implement. Both to create and to maintain. Maybe someone will volunteer to become the program’s Official Indexer. No pay. But incredible amounts of fame and glory! Well … At least, gratitude.
In the meantime, a simple Google search seems to be the best way to find specific topics on past programs. Google kindly indexes all past text transcripts. And does so quite quickly. It’s fairly reliable, and near-universally available.
We’ve got a lot to cover this week, so let’s get right to it. We’ll concentrate on the Abe Administration’s major policy speeches in the Diet today. Focusing on the performances of Prime Minister Abe and Foreign Minister Aso. Both, I think, were quite important. And, as usual we’ll close with an outstanding bluegrass clip that will brighten your week.
Miyazaki’s 2007 Gubernatorial Election and Tokyo’s “Gotcha Politics”
First, though, a look at the results of the prefectural gubernatorial elections last Sunday, and the on-going saga of political finance scandal. As I mentioned briefly last week, three prefectures held gubernatorial elections on Sunday. The governors of Ehime and Yamanashi prefectures had completed their four-year terms. Both elections were won by LDP-backed candidates: Moriyuki Kato in Ehime, and Shomei Yokouchi in Yamanashi. No big surprise, since the DJP had decided not to nominate a candidate in either race. Probably because they were likely to lose. Or to avoid disagreements over nominations among their support groups.
The race in Miyazaki Prefecture was something different, however. Even though the DJP stayed out of it as well. First, Miyazaki is a very conservative, traditional prefecture in Southwestern Japan. I’ve yet been able to visit. But descriptions remind me, in many ways, of South Carolina. [Now, that’s high praise!] You may recall that Miyazaki’s former governor, Tadahiro Ando, was recently arrested on suspicion of construction project bid-rigging. He resigned, and that’s what necessitated the election.
The LDP and Komeito, must have been confident of an easy win. They nominated the retired director general of the Forest Agency, Hidesaburo Kawamura, as their candidate. An ideal traditional LDP candidate. Former bureaucrat. Strong support from agricultural organizations. Good traditional politics strategy. But, the LDP prefectural chapter was unable to unite behind Kawamura. Some of its powerful members supported a former METI bureaucrat, Tetsuji Mochinaga. And he ended up running as well. In fact, he was able to win nearly 121,000 votes, while the conservatively endorsed Kawamura won just over 195,000.
This split in the conservative vote, proved an important factor in the surprising victory of Sonomamma Higashi. He came in with around 267,000 votes, to win. But there’s more to the story than that. Higashi is well known as a former television comedian. His real name is Hideo Higashikokubaru. No wonder he changed it! This isn’t the first time an entertainer has won a prefectural governorship. Indeed, it happened a decade or so ago in both Tokyo and Osaka, with their large numbers of floating voters, and more diverse populations. But Miyazaki is no Tokyo! Or even Osaka! This very conservative prefecture isn’t the sort of place one would expect such a result.
Higashi, or Higashikokubaru, as he wants to be called again, now he’s governor, was supported by no political party. He put together a genuine grass-roots campaign. It was organized around his high school classmates. The campaign worked. Indeed, exit polls showed that Higashi won a surprising number of votes from those who identified themselves as LDP and DJP supporters. And, he did even better among those who said they supported no party in particular.
Sooo, what does all of this mean? Well, I could go on for hours about this were there time. But the key point for us, I think, is that this is further evidence that Japan’s attentive public – and voters – have grown less tolerant of the political corruption that’s characterized traditional politics for some time now. Even in rural, traditional places like Miyazaki. If given the chance, they’ll vote in large numbers for alternative candidates. Even when those candidates have limited experience and backgrounds. Even when, as is the case with Higashi, those candidates have somewhat checkered pasts.
Talk about “sending a message”! The leaders of both the LDP and the DJP should devote long hours to studying what happened last Sunday in Miyazaki. The old formulas no longer work. Or, at least, no longer work when faced with an effective challenge. Combine this surprising electoral outcome in Miyazaki with the more energetic prosecution of political funding violations we’ve been discussing on this program, and we have something to think about.
True, the recent spate of “sloppy bookkeeping” revelations, affecting both the LDP and the DJP, appears to have dissipated into just another round of “Gotcha Politics,” Japan style. Though they have forced the resignation of DJP-affiliated Upper House Vice President, Giichi Tsunoda, and further embarrassed the Abe Administration.
Maybe it’s time for Japan’s public and responsible government leaders to face the uncomfortable truth that electoral politics in Japan today costs those standing for election much more than Japan’s highly restrictive political campaign finance laws allow them legally to spend. That means, many, if not most, candidates standing for election, and their supporters, must choose between strictly obeying the law and winning their election! Until that uncomfortable truth is faced, we’ll continue to see one wave of similar “gotcha politics” after another. Each wave further eroding the confidence of Japan’s attentive public in their elected representatives.
That’s not so serious if those elected representatives are expected only to bring home the pork from Tokyo. But things have changed. Elected representatives, beginning with the central political executive that I talk so much about, now are expected by their constituents to exercise more responsible roles. To actually govern! Something’s got to change. The deciding factor in Japan’s elections shouldn’t be whether a campaign is willing or not willing to break the law. More realistic campaign finance laws, and more intensive and consistent prosecution of violations, could make a difference. I’ll keep you posted.
Abe and Aso Policy Speeches to the Diet on January 26, 2007.
Each new session of the Lower House of Japan’s parliament features policy speeches by the prime minister and the major cabinet ministers during the first day or so. They lack the impact of U.S. presidential State of the Union messages. But are nonetheless important. NHK provides full television coverage from beginning to end. And that alone assures the other political media’s attention! These speeches are important opportunities for the incumbent prime minister and cabinet to communicate their policy intentions – and accomplishments – directly to Japan’s attentive public.
Prime Minister Abe and his cabinet colleagues gave their speeches to the Diet today. It really is a new era in terms of communications technology. Japan is 13 hours ahead of us here on the East Coast of the United States, of course. So I’ve been able to watch videos of the whole Diet session today, the 26th, including these speeches. I’ll add links to the show notes and the transcript to the videos so you can watch them too if you wish. [http://www.shugiintv.go.jp/en/]
In addition to the video, I found the text transcript of Prime Minister Abe’s speech on the Kantei website. And the transcript of Foreign Minister Aso’s speech on the Foreign Ministry website. So, I could follow along in the transcript while the video was playing. Just to make sure I understood everything they said. And since my spoken Japanese these days is about as rusty as last year’s tent stakes, that’s a great advantage.
Generalizations About Prime Minister Abe’s Speech
Let’s begin with Prime Minister Abe’s speech. First some general observations, and then on to consider the specifics of what he actually said.
First, and perhaps most significant, Shinzo Abe is no Junichiro Koizumi! Yes, yes, I know. It’s unfair to compare Abe with Koizumi this way. But it just can’t be helped. And, in justification, I’m not the only one making the comparison! It’s likely that nearly every Japanese watching Abe’s performance in the Diet today was making exactly that comparison. Thinking, “He’s no Koizumi!” So, whether fair or not, Abe’s public performances are bound to be compared to those of his more flamboyant, even charismatic, predecessor. And the comparison will influence the effectiveness of Abe’s message.
Abe appears hard-working, diligent, well-prepared, and certainly sincere. He undoubtedly sat in or near the front row of all his college classes. And paid strict attention. But he somehow appears – at least, to me – to lack that difficult-to-define persuasiveness, or public connectivity, with which Koizumi was so abundantly blessed. Watching the video, I had the sense Prime Minister Abe was working hard to give an important speech. Without making a single mistake. Koizumi, in similar circumstances, appeared to be having a conversation with every member of his audience. And talking in a way that made it clear he was the leader to follow. Keep in mind, this is only the observation of a non-Japanese, foreign, observer. Prime Minister Abe may have special appeal that only the Japanese attentive public can recognize. But, his declining public approval ratings suggest this recognition, if it does exist, has been slow in coming.
Second, it appears – again to this foreign observer – that Abe’s “Utsukushii Nippon,” or “Beautiful Japan,” catch phrase is an albatross around the necks of the Kantei’s public communications staff. He’s simply employed the phrase beyond its effective political potential. And insists, apparently, upon continuing to do so! He used it at least eight times, in one form or another, during that single policy speech to the Diet. The phrase is simply too vague, and too soft, to be used the way he’s trying to use it.
Abe is asked over and over to explain what he means by a “beautiful Japan.” To provide a more specific definition. Not that a beautiful Japan is bad, or undesirable. It’s just not a very effective political campaign phrase. It doesn’t naturally point the listener in the direction of the policies that Abe is trying to implement. Several people in Japan have told me it reminds them of the old Kanebo television ad in which the young woman is heard saying, “For beautiful human life.” Well, when it comes to hard-ball national politics, that’s not a comparison one wants to hear. Such a phrase should attract attention. But not that kind of attention.
A trivial point? Hardly! Ask anyone with real political campaign experience. Shinzo Abe was selected as LDP president and prime minister on the basis of his popular appeal. In contrast to the traditional system of collecting LDP factional support. He must rely on that popular support to maintain his position, and to achieve his policy objectives while in office. Just like his predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi. That requires him to communicate his objectives and accomplishments effectively – and persuasively – with Japan’s attentive public.
Key Specific Points of Prime Minister Abe’s Speech
Following along in the text transcript on one computer monitor, while watching and listening to the video of Prime Minister Abe’s speech on another monitor, I was struck by the comparison of the two. Somehow, Abe’s message seemed to come through more clearly and persuasively in the printed transcript than it did through the audio and video! That’s quite unusual. And unfortunate for him. Since it’s likely that more people in Japan will have seen the speech, or clips, on television, than will have read it.
Abe’s speech ran just over 40 minutes. He began with the observation that changes are required if Japan is to adapt to its new 21st century domestic and international environments. And that he was determined to meet that challenge.
Abe proposed to promote economic growth through encouragement of innovation. He announced “Innovation 25,” a Kantei-driven initiative to promote technological innovation in medicine, manufacturing productivity, agriculture, and information technology. All of which would improve the lives of Japan’s people, and assure the health of the Japanese economy.
Abe provided more details of his plans to give those who have lost out in market-economy competition a “second chance.” This has been one of his long-standing policy interests. One that helps to justify his conservative market-competition economic policy orientation. Here he focused on plans to revise Japan’s part-time work laws in ways that will advantage those who have been unable to find full-time employment. Including insurance and pension benefits.
The relationship between Japan’s central government and the prefectural and local governments around the country is a sensitive issue. Dear to the hearts of all parliamentarily elected officials. Decentralization has been mentioned as a central government objective for many years. This includes reductions of transfer payments from the national treasury to local and prefectural governments. As well as increased taxation authority for those same governments at the local level. And less national-level regulation of local government. Abe promised submission of a new package of governmental decentralization bills to the Diet within three years. As well a new program to support innovation and entrepreneurship at the local level.
Abe noted about half-way through his speech that education reform is his Cabinet’s top priority. An essential part of his effort to create a Beautiful Japan. Both, efforts to instill sound moral values, and to reverse the drop in language, science, and mathematical skills.
To achieve this, Abe proposes efforts to improve the quality of Japan’s public primary and secondary school teachers. Including requirements for teacher recertification, employment of outsiders with useful experience in the classroom, and reconsideration of the “pressure-free education” policies that many believe has eroded the quality of Japan’s basic education.
Abe’s education reform plans interest me. Not only their substance. But their potential political significance. Those of you who have been observing political Japan for more than two decades, undoubtedly remember Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone’s up-hill campaign to reform Japan’s National Railway system. He did this, in part, to allow for creation of a more efficient railway system that would require smaller subsidies from the national treasury. A serious problem at the time.
But, Nakasone himself noted in an article published earlier this month in Yomiuri, that privatization of Japan’s railway system led to the destruction of the General Council of Trade Unions of Japan, or Sohyo. This, in turn, he wrote, led to the collapse of the Japan Socialist Party. A thoughtful political observer could be excused for wondering about Nakasone’s true motives at the time. Was he primarily interested in improving Japan’s railway system? Or was he more interested in destroying the Socialist Party’s most important supporter, Sohyo, in the process?
As in the United States, Japan’s Big Labor is not quite as big as it once was. But the National Teachers Union, Nikkyoso, remains as its most politically active and influential component. Nikkyoso provides important support to the Democratic Party of Japan, as well as to other parties of Japan’s political Left.
Could it be that Prime Minister Abe has taken a leaf from Nakasone’s notebook, and hopes to take a swipe at Nikkyoso with his education reform policies? As well as produce better educated Japanese children? He certainly has given Union officials and Union members something to think about with calls for teacher recertification and introduction of outsiders into the classroom. Those proposed reforms are more threatening than requiring teachers to instill patriotism in their pupils. We’re talking here about careers and income!
If the reforms Abe has proposed prove popular with Japan’s attentive public, will the DJP and the other parties of Japan’s Left be willing still to oppose them in order to maintain Nikkyoso support for their parties’ candidates? This could become a difficult choice for Japan’s Opposition party leaders.
The prudent analyst avoids speculating about the motivations of important political actors, since it’s something impossible to know, or at least prove beyond doubt. We will just have to wait to see what effect these education reform proposals have on Nikkyoso and Nikkyoso’s relationships with the DJP and other parties of the Left.
After some general comments about Japan’s foreign relations, Prime Minister Abe concluded his policy speech with mention of Fukuzawa Yukichi’s admonition not to avoid difficult tasks, and asked for everyone’s cooperation and support.
Foreign Minister Taro Aso’s Policy Speech January 26, 2007
Foreign Minister Taro Aso followed his prime minister to the podium, and presented the Cabinet’s international relations objectives in a tightly organized eight-minute speech. I was able to view and listen to this on video as well while following along in the printed transcript on another monitor. Ah, the newer communications technology.
Aso began by noting that Japan’s international policies since the end of the Second World War have been based on three principles. They are the alliance with the United States, cooperation with international diplomatic efforts, and maintaining good relations with the countries of Asia.
To this, he said, he and the Abe Cabinet have added a fourth “pillar.” Creation of an “Arc of Freedom and Prosperity.” This is not a new term. We’ve heard it used by Aso, Abe, and others since Aso himself introduced it during a lecture for the Foreign Ministry’s Institute of International Affairs back in November 2006. Indicating it was to be adopted as a fourth basic principle in Japan’s conduct of international relations.
I read the speech soon after it was given. And was tempted then to mention it on the program. But other issues pushed it down on the “must do” list. Quite a catchy phrase: “Arc of Freedom and Prosperity.” Beats the heck out of “Beautiful Country”! In my view.
Aso described his Arc as a group of countries stretching across the Eurasian Continent. Each is in the process of achieving freedom and democracy. This, Aso argued, is something worthy of Japan’s support. Japan supports, Aso said, the universal values of democracy, human rights, the market economy, and the rule of law. These high-sounding phrases take on more significance when one considers the recent visit Foreign Minister Aso made to Eastern European countries. And Prime Minister Abe’s recent visit to Western Europe, and the speech he gave at NATO headquarters. This can’t be dismissed as empty Diet speech rhetoric.
Aso then proceeded to describe his commitment to maintain the original three pillars of Japan’s international relations, concluding with determination to pursue an active diplomacy that will persuade other countries to take Japan’s diplomatic efforts more seriously.
We’ll talk more about Japan’s new values-oriented international relations posture in subsequent programs. But this is about all we have time for this week. With the exception, of course, of an inspirational bluegrass clip that will brighten your whole week. You may recall that incredible North Carolina bluegrass band, the Wind Riders. If memory serves, some time ago I gave you a sample of their artistry. Well, their album on CD-Baby is selling well around the country. I’ll put a link to it in the show notes and the transcript. Click on over and start your own bluegrass collection. [http://cdbaby.com/cd/windriders]
This is from the next-to-last cut on that CD, entitled, “Another Night.” Enjoy.
[bluegrass clip]
Goodbye all. Until next week.
