December 29, 2006; Volume 02, Number 46
of the
Japan Considered Podcast
[Listen to the audio file by clicking here]
Clink Links Below for Today's Topics
Good Morning. From Beautiful Spring Valley in the Midlands of South Carolina. Today is Friday, December 29th, 2006. And you are listening to Volume 02, Number 46, of the Japan Considered Podcast.
Well. It hardly seems possible. Already the last program of 2006. I hope all of you are enjoying your year-end holidays. Getting to spend it in just the way you’d been hoping for all year. Happy New Year to you all.
And thanks for your attention to this podcast. Listener numbers have risen far beyond expectations during 2006. That’s encouraging. Without listeners – or readers! – there’s little reason to continue producing these programs. As always, it’s good to hear from you. Drop an e-mail to RobertCAngel@gmail.com with your comments and suggestions. I read each one, and try to respond. Though some of the responses admittedly are brief. Each week, interesting ideas and different interpretations arrive in my mailbox. And I consider them all when planning future programs.
One example of this listener feedback is more emphasis on developments at the Kantei, or Prime Minister’s Official Residence. Quite a few of you have written asking for more coverage of that topic. Some have even written with interesting additional information. Understandably, those folks usually ask not to be mentioned by name or affiliation. But their contributions are appreciated nonetheless. There’s far too little useful material out there on the Kantei. That’s true in Japanese as well as in English. As Japan’s Central Political Executive increases in importance within the overall national political system, we all need to learn more attention to it. I’ll try to help fill the gap during 2007.
Several of you also have written suggesting a year-end warp-up program. The approach of year’s-end inspires the Political Punditocracy throughout the world to reflect on events during the past twelve months. And even to make predictions about political trends for the following year. I’ll resist both temptations on this program. No end-of-year summary, and no predictions. Sorry, but Japan’s domestic politics and international relations have been just too chaotic for me to treat a whole year’s-worth responsibly. You’ll have to go to other sources for those “year-end wrap-up” sorts of presentations. It’s hard enough to try to make sense of what’s happened in Japan during the past week or so!
Abe Cabinet’s Public Communications Difficulties Continue
And that’s been a lot! Prime Minister Abe and his Kantei team continue to be battered about the head, neck and shoulders in Japan’s media. With sensational revelations and high-level resignations, one after the other. We have yet another of those to consider this week. One could almost take pity on poor Abe, watching one political journalist after another pile on his beleaguered cabinet. Like sharks attracted to a bleeding victim.
Almost, but not quite! After all, media scrutiny and criticism is part of the system. An essential part of any democratic system, in fact. I don’t recall any prime minister – at least since Hayato Ikeda – who hasn’t been criticized by the press. It just doesn’t happen. And it shouldn’t happen! Anticipating this media scrutiny, and being prepared to respond is an essential part of the job.
So, Shinzo Abe and his appointees must have expected the onslaught as they took office. Especially given the politically conservative orientation of their policy agenda. Quite at odds with the ideological leanings of much of Japan’s mainstream media. And they should have been prepared to cope with it. That part of the Central Political Executive’s job has become even more crucial, given the growing importance of solid public support for the credibility and influence of Japan’s prime minister and cabinet.
This, as I suggested last week, is more than a minor problem of technical political PR spin. It represents, I fear, a disappointing commentary on the incumbent leadership’s understanding of their relationship with Japan’s public. Their responsibility to communicate effectively with that attentive public. There’s no other way to do this effectively than through the communications media. Even when that communications media appears to have turned hostile and unfair. At least, from the perspective of the Kantei’s incumbents. We’ll consider this important issue in more detail today.
The Abe Cabinet at the beginning of this week was still on the ropes and breathing hard, according to Japan’s political media, from the battering they’ve taken over the resignation of Professor Masaaki Homma as Chairman of the Tax Commission. I mentioned this last week, and even expressed surprise that Homma’s resignation wasn’t handled more effectively by those responsible for Kantei public communications.
Earlier this week, the Kantei announced that Professor Homma would be replaced by Yutaka Kosai. Kosai is a well-known government economist, a veteran, who served for many years in the old Economic Planning Agency, before retiring in the early 1980s. Since then he’s managed, or overseen the management of, important think tanks with close ties to the Government of Japan, and held a number of government advisory posts.
Kosai is a battle-tested pro. He understands economics and economic policy. But he also understands politics. He knows his way around the Kantei and the Diet, in other words. And at 73, he’s experienced enough to avoid the sorts of problems that led to Homma’s departure from the stage. On policy issues, Kosai should be no closer to the Ministry of Finance than was Homma. Which really is what this is all about. And, judging from his past statements and activities, he should be very comfortable pursuing the economic policies favored by Prime Minister Abe. So, it may have been a bit messy, but the Kantei appears now to have just the sort of Tax Commission Chairman that they wanted in the first place.
Another Resignation: Genichiro Sata Over Funding Scandal
As the Homma Fiasco burned away on the front pages of Japan’s year-end newspapers, rumors erupted at the beginning of the week that another Abe hand-picked political appointee was in trouble. This time a Cabinet member responsible for the key issues of administrative reform and regional vitalization. In contrast to Professor Homma, Genichiro Sata is a Member of the Lower House, having served since 1990. He’s long supported administrative and political reforms of the sort supported by Abe. And he campaigned hard for Abe’s selection as LDP president.
According to the Japanese press, one of Sata’s political support organizations had been claiming office expenses on his political expenditure reports for an office that doesn’t appear to have existed. Throughout most of the 1990s! Amounting, if true, to a tidy sum of under-reported expenditure. Sata soon held a press conference and admitted that there were problems of sloppy bookkeeping, but said he didn’t yet have all the details.
“Sloppy bookkeeping,” as Sata put it, was far from unusual for LDP Members of the Diet during the Factionist era of politics. Japan’s old multi-member electoral system encouraged LDP Lower House Members and Candidates to maintain incredibly expensive vote-collecting support groups, known as “Koenkai.” Japan’s election campaign finance laws are some of the most restrictive going. But the money to support those organizations, and other expensive electoral practices, had to come from somewhere. One might say that under the old Factionist system, “sloppy bookkeeping” was almost a necessity!
But things have changed. Japan’s attentive public appears less inclined these days to overlook such indiscretions of their elected representatives with ironic smiles, and a shake of the head – as they cast their votes. And, even if they were, Japan’s prosecutors appear to have developed a new commitment to pursuing such cases. We’re likely to see quite a bit more of these political funding prosecutions in the future, I suspect. Especially during the run-up to the mid-year Upper House elections.
Cynical observers may suspect anti-LDP political motivation on the part of at least the communications media, given their enthusiastic reporting. But it’s hard to disparage the overall effort. Certainly, Japan’s political reformers must be pleased by the development. More effective prosecution of illegal political funding practices, all else constant, should discourage the practice. And that, in turn, should encourage more incumbents and candidates to turn from old-style Factionist campaigning, to the new wave of what we’ve described on this program, for lack of a better term, as “Populist” campaigning. Word’s bound to get around! Perhaps even the Kantei will hear it.
By Wednesday, the 27th, Sata had announced his resignation from the Cabinet. Though he said he is determined to maintain his seat in the Lower House. Attention then shifted to the naming of his successor.
Prime Minister Abe Names Yoshimi Watanabe Named to Succeed Genichiro Sata
The Kantei handled Genichiro Sata’s replacement far more smoothly than they did that of Professor Homma. And, the selection may have significance beyond management of that particular flap, or even beyond the administrative reform post’s specific responsibilities. The following day, Thursday, the Kantei’s Senior Vice Minister in Charge of Financial Services, Yoshimi Watanabe, had accepted the position. And by that afternoon Watanabe was all over Japan’s television airwaves explaining his commitment to administrative and political reform.
So far, I’ve seen only a few video news clips and newspaper articles. But it appears to me that from the beginning Watanabe focused his presentations and explanations on the “amakudari” issue. An issue well within the responsibility of the administrative reform post. And a problem well known to Japan’s public. “Amakurari” literally means “descent from heaven” in Japanese. But the term is used to describe the process through which early-retiring senior government bureaucrats land comfortable jobs in private sector organizations. Where, naturally, they use their government experience to continue to draw a good salary, and to earn that good salary by benefiting their new employer.
Japan’s attentive public already perceives amakudari negatively. Perhaps strongly so. It’s seen, reasonably, as a potential source of corruption. Collusion between government agencies responsible for spending Japan’s tax money and the private-sector firms who receive the contracts that money pays for. If I’m correct about this, it’s encouraging. In contrast to the Abe Kantei’s public assurance that they are committed to doing the right thing when it comes to reform, Watanabe is highlighting an issue Japan’s attentive public already understands as a specific example of this commitment to reform. We’ll have to wait a while to see if this is so, or if it’s just a figment of my imagination.
Watanabe also hinted in one of his numerous press appearances that he would be expected to help the Abe Cabinet communicate more effectively with Japan’s attentive public. Hmmm. It’s a thought! They sure can use the help. IF, Abe, Shiozaki, and the other key players, recognize the need, and are willing to accept the help.
Yoshimi Watanabe is something more than a run-of-the-mill fourth-term LDP Lower House Member. He’s the eldest son of LDP legend, Michio Watanabe. After graduating from Waseda and Chuo Universities, he’s spent most of his adult life in national politics. First serving a long apprenticeship as his father’s political secretary. Something he has in common with Prime Minister Abe and many of the other reform-minded LDP second- and third-generation politicians. He was first elected to the Lower House in 1996, upon the death of his father, and has served there since. He’s known to have a strong interest in political reform, and campaigned vigorously for both Koizumi and Abe.
Most interesting to me, however, is Yoshimi Watanabe’s reputation as a political television program gadfly. It would be hard to live for more than a month or two in Japan during the past decade and not see Watanabe on one or another of the television political talk shows, earnestly explaining some political reform issue. In blunt, easy-to-understand terms. Indeed, the English language press in Japan have attached the adjective “outspoken” to Watanabe. If Abe is “beleaguered,” and Shiozaki is “dapper,” Watanabe is “outspoken.”
It’s difficult to judge appearances in another culture. To recognize what sort of physical attributes and behavior will appeal to Japan’s attentive public through the electronic media. I used to think I knew. But that confidence is long gone. Like so many other confidences, the victim of longer experience. But Watanabe, who looks a great deal like his father, seems to me to understand how to use the electronic news media to present complex political issues to Japan’s public. He’s certainly done enough of it.
So, is it possible that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has recognized the problem his Administration is having communicating with Japan’s attentive public? And that he will ask Yoshimi Watanabe to help redefine their effort? Watanabe seemed to hint so in one of his press conferences yesterday. But, even if that’s all true, will Watanabe be given the opportunity to fulfill that function now that he’s been elevated to cabinet status? Will his “rough-and-tumble” style be appreciated in this ever-so buttoned-down Kantei? We’ll know in a couple of weeks. It really will matter.
Well, we’ve reached the end of another year. Thanks again for your attention to this program. To those of you who subscribe to the audio version of the podcast via iTunes or some other MP3 aggregator, to those of you who download the sound files from the Japan Considered Project website, and to those of you who prefer to access the transcripts of each week’s programs on the Japan Considered website.
I look forward to bringing you commentary and analysis on Japan’s domestic politics and conduct of international relations during 2007. We’re sure to have plenty to consider. As listenership – and readership – have expanded this year, I’ve tried to focus attention on those themes of greatest interest to the greatest number of listeners. Your suggestions and comments are always appreciated. And, like the program itself, it costs nothing to send them. Just address an e-mail to RobertCAngel@gmail.com. I won’t know what you’d like too hear more about unless you tell me. So, “keep those cards and letters coming,” as they used to say in the golden days of radio. Though, now you don’t even need a stamp! I read them all, and take each one into consideration when planning subsequent programs.
To go out tonight, I have a clip for you from the Original Seldom Scene. There are critics of bluegrass music who believe this group represents the pinnacle of the art. Mebbe so; Mebbe so. It doesn’t have to get any better than this for me, anyway. Here’s a clip from their 1975 “Live at the Cellar Door” CD. John Starling leads City of New Orleans. Have a listen.
[bluegrass]
Goodbye all. Until next week.
