November 17, 2006; Volume 02, Number 41
of the
Japan Considered Podcast
[Listen to the audio file by clicking here]
Clink Links Below for Today's Topics
Good Morning. From the sunny but cool – even chilly -- Columbia campus of the University of South Carolina. Today is Friday, November 17th, 2006. And you are listening to Volume 02, Number 41, of the Japan Considered Podcast.
Well! Today’s the day. Our First Anniversary. A milestone, to be sure. Hardly seems possible. But listen to this …
[clip of 11/18/05 first program intro]
That, in all its splendid scratchiness, was the first section of the first program, recorded on an old machine, with borrowed sound equipment. At the time, I wasn’t at all sure I could pull the project off. So, it started on a shoestring. We’re not on much more than a shoestring now, since the whole operation is self-financed. But at least we have a little better sound recording equipment.
We’ve been at it now for a whole year, a total of 48 programs. Nearly every week. All of those programs are still available, by the way, on the website, and on the blogsite, if you’re interested. And transcripts of each program, from the first one for 2006, or the beginning of Volume 02, are available for reference on the Japan Considered Project website, should you be interested. The transcripts get indexed by the ubiquitous Google spiders, not long after they are posted. So, you usually can find program content through a regular Google search as well.
I’m Robert Angel, creator and maintainer of the Japan Considered Project, and creator and host of this podcast. Each week at this time for the past year we’ve selected a few significant events in the news from Japan, and considered their longer-term significance for Japan’s domestic politics and international relations. There’s a lot to choose from! Which means we’ve had to ignore many important topics in order to keep within our loose time limit for each week’s program.
Looking back through the earlier program files this morning, I see we’ve covered changes in the central political executive – that is, Japan’s prime minister, cabinet, and their immediately supporting administrative apparatus – fairly often. And we’ve considered the shift from personalistic factionist politics to non-factionist, or populist, politics, since I first mentioned it toward the end of January this year. And, the role of the communications media in Japan’s domestic politics and conduct of international relations. Hard to generalize without a more systematic examination of the topics for each week. But we’ll continue to consider these themes and others, I hope. Heavens knows, we won’t run out of things to talk about!
Speaking of which, we’d better get to the topics we have to consider this week. They include a recent Governor’s race in Fukushima, the longer-term significance of the wave of arrests of prefectural governors on suspicion of election campaign funding fraud, and the DPJ’s participation in Diet debate of the basic education law revision. In know, I know. There’s lots more to consider. But this will all we have time for today. So, let’s get right to it.
Continued Discussion of the Town Meeting Flap
First, though we should take notice of continuation of the Town Meeting flap. As we mentioned last week, it’s related to the Abe Administration’s effort to revise the basic education law. And also to the Kantei’s effort generally to further strengthen the role of the central political executive in Japan’s national policy formulation and implementation processes. This puts it smack-dab in the middle of Japan’s current tug-of-war between political conservatives and political liberals. Making it of continued interest to us on this program.
Recognizing the flammability of the issue, the Kantei earlier this week asked Cabinet Office Senior Vice Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi to assemble a panel of private-sector academics, lawyers, and other experts to investigate the problem and make a public report. This panel has yet to release its findings. And it probably will be a while before they do.
But Japan’s major media companies have begun nationwide investigations of their own, surveying prefectural offices associated with town meetings in search of evidence of Kantei tampering with the process. Their published findings to date have been about what we’d expect.
Town Meetings at the beginning of the Koizumi Administration were quite a novelty, attracting considerable media attention. They were well received by the public as evidence the new prime minister cared about, and would listen to, public opinion. But within a year or two, the novelty wore off. And conduct of Town Meetings became just a routine part of the Kantei’s activities.
Local and prefectural officials assumed greater responsibility for arranging meetings, as key Kantei personnel moved on to other tasks. These local officials found it increasingly difficult to attract participants in their gatherings. At least, in numbers large enough to impress political journalists covering the events. Soooo, good bureaucrats that they were, local government and prefectural employees were asked to attend in the place of the general public. And it wasn’t long before questions were being planted in the audience. Questions, of course, intended to support the Kantei’s policy objectives related to the theme of the specific meeting. And not long after that, modest payments were made to designated questioners. This happened a lot, according to the media investigations mentioned a moment ago. You don’t need a PhD in political science or public administration to predict such an outcome.
The Koizumi Administration political leaders who originated the Town Meeting system hoped to impress Japan’s public with their openness and interest in public opinion. The local and prefectural bureaucrats who gradually assumed responsibility for implementation of the meetings, on the other hand, had different objectives. They hoped, first, in good bureaucrat fashion, to avoid any possibility of criticism from their superiors for failing to conduct a successful meeting. If possible, they hoped the meeting or meetings they conducted would be more impressive, or more effective, than meetings conducted in other prefectures. This undoubtedly contributed mightily to the public relations disaster that erupted last week at the Aomori Town Meeting on revision of Japan’s Education Law.
That’s all true. But it’s not the whole story. As sure as day follows night, the Abe Kantei will do its best to attribute blame for efforts at Town Meeting manipulation to those local and prefectural administrators. A “mistakes were made” sort of response. But Kantei officials responsible for public relations were equally responsible for allowing such a sensitive political operation to be handled as administrative routine. Ultimately, the responsibility was theirs. They surely were aware of the positive results produced by the rigged meetings. And they accepted the benefit. They also should have recognized the “flap potential” of such sensitive activities, and should have kept more careful watch on the operations.
Creation of the investigative panel under Yoshimasa Hayashi is an understandable response. But the Kantei really needs neither Hayashi’s panel nor a crystal ball to identify the problem. As did its predecessor, the Abe Administration is relying heavily on recognition of its high public approval ratings to maintain its influence, and to strengthen its bargaining leverage within the LDP. Activities related to promotion of public approval, then, are every bit as important in this new system as was collection of large sums of money in the previous system. (More on that theme in a moment.) They simply can’t be left to the bureaucrats! They’re sure to continue, in one form or another. And they must be managed directly, and skillfully. It seems likely to me that eruption of this devastating incident so early in the Abe Administration’s incumbency will increase the influence of PR maven, Hiroshige Sekou, within the Kantei. We’ll surely return to this issue in subsequent programs, which will give us the opportunity to see.
Governor’s Races Provide Tests for All Parties
The gubernatorial election in Fukushima Prefecture last Sunday, November 12th, was certainly good news to the Democratic Party of Japan. Their candidate, Yuhei Sato, won easily over the LDP/New Komeito-backed Masako Mori. Ending up with 497,171 votes, to Mori’s 395,950 votes. A very comfortable margin indeed. Ichiro Ozawa’s DPJ and the Socialists were able to pull together a coalition this time that included active support of Fukushima Prefecture’s organized labor chapters. Their campaign focused on a good old commitment to rid prefectural government of the sort of corruption represented by the arrest of their previous governor on suspicion of corruption three days before campaigning began.
We’ll get back to that in a moment. But first, a couple of comments on the candidates, and what they can tell us. The LDP-backed Masako Mori appeared ideal. Female, attractive. Almost assassin-like, to revert to the popular images of the 2005 general election. And only 42 years old. She’s a lawyer, who’s also served as a mid-level official in the Financial Services Agency. She was given all of the support the LDP and Abe Kantei could muster. Repeated visits by the most senior LDP officials and members of the Abe Cabinet. All of whom argued that Fukushima needed a governor who could work with the Abe Administration at the national level. In short, a dream candidate for the new LDP.
Yuhei Sato, on the other hand, can be fairly described as a more traditional political figure. He’s 58 years old. Difficult to describe as “charismatic.” But he’s been active in politics for a long time. Serving on the staff of the legendary Kozo Watanabe, now a key member of the DPJ. Who’s also from Fukushima. We’ve talked about Watanabe before on this program, and the important role he’s played in keeping the Democratic Party of Japan on its feet during the Nagata bogus e-mail fiasco. Watanabe sponsored Sato’s race in 2004 for an Upper House seat. A race he won with a whopping 440,000 votes. According to Japan’s political media reports, Kozo Watanabe was the only senior Diet Member to campaign for Sato. But that was all he needed.
This Fukushima gubernatorial election itself leaves us with a couple of take-away points, I think. First, slick media appeal – to put it crudely – doesn’t always trump traditional politics. Masako Mori ran an ideal campaign, with plenty of support. But she struggled against the image of a long-serving LDP-backed governor having been arrested for bribery just days before. Charges that few observers in Fukushima doubted. This … ah, “delicate” … situation made it difficult for the traditional LDP support groups in Fukushima Prefecture to support her enthusiastically, as they had the recently arrested Eisaku Sato. It also may illustrate the difficulty of creating a media- and issue-based, or popular, campaign when the traditional model has been used so effectively for so long, and so recently.
Yuhei Sato’s campaign can fairly be described as traditional for an Opposition-backed candidate. Although he ran formally as an “independent,” he was backed by both the DPJ and the Socialists. Further, and in sharp contrast to recent gubernatorial elections in which the DPJ was disappointed, Sato received strong support from the prefectural and local branches of organized labor. This was presumably possible since the campaign focused almost exclusively on the anti-corruption theme, and avoided the Unions’ and the Socialists’ more divisive hot-button issues.
It’s foolish to try to make predictions or projections from a single case. But it does seem now that DPJ electoral success at the prefectural level may depend heavily on a similar support configuration. At least for a while. The ability of Party leadership to avoid confrontation with the Left-leaning members of the DPJ, and to gain the support of the Socialists, and the cooperation of organized labor in the constituency. That support and cooperation, of course, comes at a price. A price that will affect positions the Party will have to take at the national level. Which may or may not benefit them overall, in the longer-term.
Prefectural Governors Facing Closer Prosecutorial Scrutiny
As mentioned a moment ago, Fukushima Prefecture’s long-serving Governor, Eisaku Sato, is now a Guest of the State. Charged with soliciting and accepting bribes related to allocation of construction projects in Fukushima Prefecture. Sato’s arrest almost certainly contributed to the LDP’s loss in that race, and greatly simplified the campaign the Opposition-backed candidate had to run to win.
The arrest of one very senior prefectural governor over suspicion of accepting bribes from construction interests alone is a significant development. But the situation doesn’t end there. This Wednesday, the 17th, Wakayama Prefecture Governor, Yoshiki Kimura, also was arrested. Again, on suspicion of involvement in construction project bid-rigging. Kimura, it turns out, had created a “social club,” which construction company executives were invited to join. For a hefty monthly membership fee, of course. He also was accused of receiving a number of very expensive watches as gifts from executives of those companies.
The political media in both Japan and the United States love to report the salacious details of these investigations. But there’s more here than base, scandal-mongering, for us to consider. Political fundraising in Japan has always been a secretive business. Especially for the LDP, I think it’s fair to say. And it takes reports on investigations like this for us to see just what’s been going on.
Traditional-style LDP electoral politics has long required enormous amounts of money to win. Especially during the era of medium-sized, multi-member, single-vote Lower House electoral districts. The 1994 electoral law revisions did away with those districts. In part, to discourage such activities. But funding practices of incumbents take time to adapt. Financial support organizations, like the voter “Koenkai,” or support groups, they fund, are difficult to build. And may be even more difficult for their creators to abandon.
Most everyone knows that Japan has extremely strict election campaign funding laws. The result? Many LDP candidates have been forced over the years to choose between winning election, or re-election, on the one hand, and on abiding by the letter of the strict election campaign funding laws, on the other. A difficult choice! And one that has left at least some elected representatives vulnerable to prosecution. That’s true at both the national Diet level, as well as the prefectural and local levels. And, of course, the local, prefectural, and national levels are closely related when it comes to building election support organizations.
Fukushima and Wakayama are not the only prefectural governments under the eye of Japan’s prosecutors at the moment. According to Japan’s political press this week, Miyazaki Prefecture is suffering the same fate. Last night, Thursday, the 16th, three Miyazaki prefectural government officials, and seven corporate executives, were arrested on suspicion of bid-rigging. Again in the troubled public works construction area. These executives included individuals known to be closely associated with Miyazaki Governor, Tadahiro Ando. Ando himself is said to be under investigation, though no further news was available on his fate. It doesn’t end there. Usually reliable Japanese press outlets report that Japan’s prosecutors already are looking into suspicions of bid-rigging in three other prefectures. Maybe more.
What accounts for this sudden spate of bid-rigging, campaign-financing investigations? Darned if I know. But I don’t recall a similar campaign – at least, not one as broadly-based as this one – since I began to study Japan’s national politics three or four decades ago. Whatever’s determined it, the campaign is certain to inconvenience Japan’s elected representatives who rely on traditional methods of vote aggregation that requires huge sums of cash at each election, and even throughout the whole year. All else constant … And, of course, all else is never constant … this will benefit those election candidates who develop more issue-based voter appeals, that rely on the communications media. Japan has yet to saddle itself with the enormously expensive television political ad campaigns we see in the United States.
So, the whole situation bears watching. And, I believe it is closely related too the distinction I’ve been making on this program between traditional Factionist politics and anti-Factionist, or “populist” politics. I’ll keep you posted.
DPJ Boycotts Diet Debate of Education Law Revision
Before signing off today, we’ve got to consider at least briefly the current Diet debate over revision of Japan’s basic education law. Especially the Democratic Party of Japan’s participation in the process. It’s related, I believe, to all the topics we’ve considered today.
Some time back on this program we discussed the possibility that the Democratic Party of Japan might adopt the old Japan Socialist Party’s tactic of boycotting Diet debate over issues they considered important. When it was certain that the LDP with its parliamentary majority was about to pass a bill they didn’t like. This the Japanese political press at the time described as the LDP “ramming” legislation through the Diet without proper consideration for the interests or wishes of the Opposition. Tyranny of the majority, as it were.
Well, as Socialist Party fortunes dwindled, and Japan’s public became more aware of the nature of deals required to persuade Socialist members to return to the Diet, the tactic seemed to fall into disuse. It became clear that LDP majorities would be able to pass legislation even without the presence of the Socialist minority at relatively little cost to their public reputations. Tyranny of the majority was one thing. But the importance of majoritarian democratic decision rules was another, I guess.
Last Sunday, DPJ Secretary General, Yukio Hatoyama, again raised the possibility that the DPJ may boycott Diet debate over the revision of the basic education bill. Arguing that the LDP had not allowed sufficient time to consider issues such as school bullying and the significance of the misuse of town meetings, an issue we considered earlier today.
Well, they did it! The DPJ leadership decided to boycott both meetings of the special committee established to debate the Bill’s revision, and the Lower House plenary vote on the 16th. They went on to boycott Upper House considerations today as well, presenting the same arguments.
It’s too soon yet to assess how effective, or ineffective, the DPJ’s parliamentary boycott tactic has been. The more blatantly anti-Abe Cabinet Japanese press immediately gave their actions some sympathetic coverage. Descriptions of “ramming,” and so on. But mixed in was fairly persuasive speculation that the DPJ’s Diet boycott decision had more to do with their coalition strategy for Sunday’s upcoming Okinawa gubernatorial election than it did for the education bill itself. So, we’ll have to wait a bit to see how all this shakes out. It’s important, though, for management of parliamentary debate in the future, I think. So, again, I’ll keep you posted.
Well, that’s all we have time for on this First Anniversary Program. As always, please continue to send your comments and suggestions to me at RobertCAngel@gmail.com. Whether you agree, disagree, or have suggestions for new topics. I read and enjoy them all. And consider each one while preparing future programs.
You may remember listening late last year to some very nice bluegrass cuts from Washington DC’s Dirty River Band. Well, they’re still going strong. Making folks happy in that part of the country. Billy Park of that band in a recent e-mail mentioned a new bluegrass band that includes Ben Eldridge’s son, Chris. Ben, of course, is the legendary banjo player of the original Seldom Scene. Chris and his friends have formed a group they call the “Infamous Stringdusters.” I found more about them, and even samples of their music on a site called “My Space.” I’ll put a link in the show notes, and in the transcript for you. Go there and have a listen. In the meantime, lend an ear to this!
[bluegrass clip]
Goodbye all. Until next week.
