September 15, 2006; Volume 02, Number 34
of the
Japan Considered Podcast
[Listen to the audio file by clicking here]
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Good Morning from beautiful Spring Valley in Columbia, South Carolina. Today is Friday, September 15th, 2006. And you are listening to Volume 02, Number 34, of the Japan Considered Podcast.
It’s a beautiful day here in Columbia. Sunny and cool. Only 65 degrees early this morning, before the sun was up. Ideal for walking. Thanks for joining me today. I’m Robert Angel, creator and maintainer of the Japan Considered Project. And creator and host of this Podcast. Each week we take a look at recent events reported from Japan, and consider their significance for Japan’s domestic politics and international relations.
Political news from Japan for the past couple of weeks has been frustrating. There’s a lot of it. More than usual, in fact. So it takes forever each morning to go through it all. That’s good. But the frustrating part is that so much of it, both in English and in Japanese, is pure fluff and speculation. It’s much like political news out of Washington during the last week of a presidential campaign. You can’t afford to ignore it. In case something really significant is reported. But most of it, as I noted last week, just repeats speculation about how things will turn out. With more attractive and enticing headlines and leads, intended to keep you reading.
This, of course, is driven by the communications media’s need to be the first with the information. Japan’s editors must push their reporters mercilessly, so their newspapers, weekly magazines, or television stations can be the first to predict the election’s outcome, the makeup of the next cabinet, or even the policies that cabinet is likely to pursue. And this, of course, makes political journalists even more vulnerable than usual to the equally inevitable efforts to manipulate their coverage.
So, even though there’s been an abundance of political news from Tokyo during the past week, most if it isn’t worth bothering with. Nothing, really, seems to have changed in the LDP presidential race. Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe appears somewhat more likely today to win the LDP presidential election. But he was considered a sure winner last week! The incoming Abe cabinet is expected to pursue domestic and international policies at least as conservative as those pursued during the last half-decade by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Maybe even more conservative! Though with concern for those who have failed and need a second chance. A somewhat more Caring Conservatism? Well, maybe. Ichiro Ozawa was selected to serve a full term as Democratic Party of Japan president. Without a challenge. And he faces problems of Party unity. Nobody expected anything different. All dog-bites-man stories.
So, this week we’re free to begin our consideration of recent developments in the Democratic Party of Japan, and of communications media and attentive public response to those developments. I’ve been hoping to do this for some time now. But more pressing issues have intervened. The delay, however, doesn’t make me any more confident that I have a “handle” on today’s DPJ. That I’ve identified the critical elements of the Party’s organization and behavior. Or that I understand what’s going on. Earlier in the week I asked Professor Len Schoppa of the University of Virginia to add a few comments on the subject. He kindly agreed. He’s spent more time studying the DPJ than have I, and knows what he’s talking about.
Before we consider the DPJ, though, a few comments on potentially significant developments in Japan’s international relations. Today, Friday, the 16th, Japanese newswires reported that the Kantei had decided to ratchet up Japan’s sanctions on North Korea a bit. Quite a bit, in fact. This, according to an unidentified government spokesmen, would be done in accordance with the July 15th United Nations Security Council resolution. It calls for North Korea to suspend missile tests and return unconditionally to the Six-Party Talks. And for imposition of international sanctions if North Korea doesn’t comply. Since North Korea has made no moves to comply, the Cabinet is expected to approve the measures during its regular Tuesday meeting next week. And to consult with the United States and other countries thereafter about expansion of the sanctions.
Specifically, according to today’s reports, Japan intends to freeze critical North Korean financial assets. Twelve corporations, organizations and individuals suspected of involvement in North Korea’s missile programs will be prohibited from withdrawing deposits they may have in Japanese financial institutions. And they will be prohibited from making remittances to North Korea. Unless they can persuade Japanese government authorities that the transfers will have no connection to missile development. These sanctions will be imposed in cooperation with other states, including the United States.
Significance of this announcement? Once again it appears that Tokyo is taking a cautious, incremental, approach to their North Korean problem. No international hysterics. No special effort to incite Japanese public opinion against North Korea. Just implementation of the measured response indicated when Tokyo implemented its own mild, even symbolic, sanctions immediately after the early July missile launch.
But for all of its moderate tone, these sanctions, if implemented next week, are indeed serious. This is a much greater blow to the financial fortunes of the Kim family and the North Korean military than the snubbing of North Korean ferry visits. The importance of the hard currency flow between Tokyo and Pyongyang to the North Korean regime is well known. It’s something that North Korea simply cannot ignore. So, stay tuned.
Concerns over oil supplies are a big headache for Washington. But think of what they must be for Japan. As everyone knows, Japan is heavily dependent on Middle East oil to fuel its enormous economy. Japan doesn’t even have the luxury of debating whether exploitation of alternative sources would upset the ecological balance of known domestic oil fields. They just don’t have any! So, energy dependence is a sensitive issue for Japan. A political minefield. Both internationally and domestically. Tokyo wants to maintain a reliable supply of reasonably priced oil. Tokyo also wants to maintain a harmonious relationship with the United States. Talk about being between a rock and a hard place!
Negotiations continue between Japan’s Inpex Corporation and Iran’s National Iranian Oil Company over Japanese development of the Azadegan oil field. We considered this issue once before, during our March 3, 2006 program. Japan hopes to participate in the development of this 26-billion barrel source of oil. A $2 billion investment there would open an important new source of energy for Japan.
But the United States is eager to have Japan withdraw from the project, due to tensions with Iran over nuclear weapons development and other issues. Japan has delayed, since signing an agreement in 2004, citing among other concerns, the presence of land mines and cost over-runs. Iranian observers have speculated that Japan is simply delaying in response to U.S. pressure. So, Teheran set a deadline of September 15th, today, for Japan to decide what it will do. Both Russia and China have expressed interest in replacing Japan in the project if Japan withdraws, according to Teheran.
METI Minister Toshihiro Nikai announced earlier today that Iran has extended the deadline by ten days. Placing the issue squarely in the lap of Japan’s incoming prime ministerial administration. Japan hopes for some change in the international situation that will allow the project to go on. Ideally, that Iran would agree to limit its nuclear weapons development program. If not, international economic sanctions on Iran are a real possibility. That would put Japan in an even worse bind.
Japan has been down this path before. Losing billions of dollars, and oil access opportunities when forced to suspend development of the Bandar Khomeini petrochemical complex in Southern Iran in the early 1980s. There seems to be no easy solution to this problem.
The Koizumi-Wen Handshake Photo
Not all international news this week has been depressing for Japan’s Kantei, however. Prime Minister Koizumi’s participation in the Asia-European Summit we discussed last week generated the anticipated response from Japan’s political press. Some fairly straight reporting. But more that emphasized how unfortunate it was that Japan has become isolated and estranged from its Asian neighbors due to Koizumi’s visits to Yasukuni Shrine. In fact, though the meeting was a fairly significant diplomatic event, coverage in Japan was quite limited. Or so I thought.
However, on Wednesday, the 13th, an unusual article hit Japan’s wire services and television channel websites. It noted that the ASEM official website featured a photograph of Koizumi shaking hands with a smiling Premier Wen Jiabao. The report went on to say that the photo had been taken by an official Chinese photographer. AND, that the Chinese government had specifically asked the Finnish managers of the website to post the photograph! All of this in spite of the fact that no official bilateral talks were held during the event.
This information was evaluated optimistically by unnamed Japanese government officials, who took it as a sign that China is hoping to improve bilateral relations once the new Japanese cabinet is in place.
I was skeptical of the report on Wednesday. But it was repeated without correction in other Japanese media outlets soon thereafter. So it’s probably true. At least, the part about the photograph’s origins. This is further evidence that Beijing has recognized that their effort to play the Yasukuni Card has proved dysfunctional. And that China is well ahead of Koizumi’s critics in Japan on this issue. Effective international public relations must be based on a clear understanding of the public opinion environment of the target country. Taste the soup before you add seasoning! It’s not easy to repair mistakes. And it will take some time for the Yasukuni Shrine visit issue to dissipate, I fear. Further complicating efforts by both Tokyo and Beijing to improve bilateral relations.
Whither Japan’s Leading Opposition Political Party: the DPJ?
Let’s turn our attention now to the Democratic Party of Japan. This will in no way be a comprehensive assessment. I just don’t know enough about the Party to pontificate with confidence. I’ve been studying the LDP on a near-daily basis for the past 40 years or so. And know enough about that Party, at least, to recognize the enormous gaps in my knowledge and understanding. I can’t even say that about the Democratic Party of Japan. I don’t even know what I don’t know! Some of the key figures in the Party, especially Party President, Ichiro Ozawa, are very familiar to me from their days in the LDP, or in other Parties. But, Ozawa and the others are operating now in a new environment. So, the earlier background is of only limited utility here.
After mentioning several times on this program that I hoped to do a comprehensive assessment of the DPJ, several listeners e-mailed asking why bother? They were more polite than that. But that’s what they meant. The DPJ took a tremendous licking in the last general election. They appear still to have great talent for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Note the Nagata bogus e-mail flap of some months ago, and how it was handled. And all we hear from them these days is how much they want to become the ruling party. And how opposed they are to the LDP’s policies and activities. So why not focus on more important topics?
Well, I believe the DPJ is considerably more important than their current political standing, public popularity, or political influence would suggest. If only because they’re now the leading opposition party in Japan’s political system. In that respect, they discharge a function similar to that performed by the Japan Socialist Party under the 1955 System. The Socialists never seriously challenged the parliamentary dominance of the LDP. But they did, in significant measure, influence the behavior and policies of the LDP throughout most of the life of the 1955 System. They were, for better and for worse, “The Opposition.” Indeed, rumor has it that certain LDP leaders, recognizing their importance, even covertly contributed financial support to the Socialists just to keep them going! Political parties are by nature engines of competition, even fighting machines. As such, they have difficulty justifying their existence, beyond their own job security and ambitions, if there’s nothing around to fight!
The DPJ, I think, is at least that important in this post-1955 System era. Important even for the LDP! Since the DPJ’s behavior will help to determine how the LDP plays its role within Japan’s political party system. Also, in contrast to the Japan Socialist Party of an earlier era – a Party as much crippled as sustained by its supporters – the DPJ has a good chance in Japan’s current political environment of becoming a genuine challenge to the LDP. Now, that will take some doing, as we’d say OverHome. But I believe it’s a real possibility, given proper leadership and planning.
So, let’s begin today with a look at DPJ leadership. In subsequent programs we’ll consider DPJ organization and DPJ policies.
Leadership from the beginning been as much a problem for the DPJ as it has been for the LDP, or for any of the parties and organizations that came together to form the DPJ.
The DPJ today is led by one of the most experienced and effective individuals in Japan’s political life: Ichiro Ozawa. To give you an idea of Ozawa’s experience, only three Diet members have longer service in the Diet: former prime minister Toshiki Kaifu, Speaker of the House Yohei Kono, and Dr. Taro Nakayama. Ozawa was first elected to succeed his father in 1969, and has been re-elected ever since. For thirty-seven years. And, in spite of his long parliamentary service, he’s still only 63 years old!
After loyal service within the LDP, first to Prime Minister Eisaku Sato, then to Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka, and then to that legendary Tanaka Faction member, Shin Kanemaru, Ozawa became LDP Secretary General in 1989, and served in that post for three terms. My impression of Ozawa during his LDP incarnation was that of an individual who was most effective serving as the right-hand man of a more powerful politician. A more powerful politician willing to use Ozawa to perform the tough jobs, who, then, would protect Ozawa from the political retribution that inevitably followed.
Ozawa has less difficulty than most Japanese politicians with open, direct confrontation. Even conflict. He’s been described, with ample justification, as a tough guy. A good man to have on your side during a fight. But not necessarily an individual with whom you are comfortable once the fight is over. He’s described – whether justifiably or not – as better at competition and conflict than he is at conciliation and cooperation.
Former DPJ President, Seiji Maehara, and his team of young reformers seriously mismanaged the Nagata bogus e-mail fiasco the DPJ faced during March of this year. Their performance substantially tarnished “Youth” as a positive attribute for political leadership. Especially within the DPJ. And “youth” appeared to be defined as anything under 60 years of age! In desperation, the Party turned – perhaps reluctantly – to its most experienced Member, Ichiro Ozawa, for new direction.
It’s not as if the DPJ didn’t have other leaders. Indeed, a surfeit of leaders has been one of their most troubling problems. First, the individuals who originally formed the party remain. And each has a strong following within the Party. Yukio Hatoyama, now serving as Secretary General, and Naoto Kan, now described as DPJ acting president, come immediately to mind. There are others, including former Socialist governor of Hokkaido, Takahiro Yokomichi, and even former Prime Minister, Tsutomu Hata, now designated as the Party’s “Supreme Adviser,” but from whom little has been heard for some time. This is a highly diverse set of potential leaders for one party! It’s not too much to say they actually have little in common beyond their Party membership.
So, as Party president, Ichiro Ozawa is expected to provide strong leadership. But he must do so in a way that doesn’t offend the other leaders of the Party. You may well ask if that isn’t true in most parties, especially in the LDP. Well, it is. But the thing I see as distinctive about the DPJ is the degree to which the personalities and policy inclinations of the other Party leaders diverge. That’s enough to challenge the talents of a party leader even as experienced as Ozawa.
Professor Len Schoppa on the DPJ and President Ichiro Ozawa
Looking for another, better informed, perspective, earlier this week I called Professor Len Schoppa and asked him to comment on the DPJ, beginning with the question of Ichiro Ozawa’s leadership. Here are his comments:
Angel: Thanks for taking the time today, Len.
Schoppa: No problem at all.
Angel: What’s your assessment of Ichiro Ozawa’s role as Party president, and the prospects for his success?
Schoppa: Hmm. That is a very difficult question. He certainly is a talented politician, great strategist in terms of picking up on issues that are resonating with the voters, and going in that direction. He lately has really been seizing on this widening inequalities in Japan, we’ve got to do something for the losers, camp. Which, ironically, goes directly against what he, and many of the Party’s founders originally advocated. Which was more structural reform, less government spending on rural areas. And these kinds of things that tended to create some of the inequalities that are now bothering Mr. Ozawa.
So, it’s not exactly consistent. But it is, probably, good electoral strategy. And if the LDP stays in the neo-liberal reform mold that Mr. Koizumi tried to push them into, and continues to cut spending and allow rural areas to stagnate, and divisions in income between the rich and the poor to widen, it is a natural place for an opposition party to take up the cause.
So, in that way, I guess I’m somewhat optimistic that he might be on to a strategy that will help them increase the size of the Party. But then there’s always his reputation for being a heavy-handed leader, causing antagonism within his parties, sometimes precipitating splits of parties. So, you have to worry if that kind of thing will happen.
A nice summary of the potential and problems combined in DPJ President, Ichiro Ozawa. One can only hope that he succeeds. We’ll hear more next week from Len, about DPJ organization and structure.
Ozawa’s relationship with Japan’s political press has been, at best, stormy. He’s reported to have a few devoted journalist friends. But for the most part, his high-handed, sometimes abrasive, style appears to irritate Japan’s political reporters. Perhaps especially those old enough to remember him in his earlier incarnations. Ozawa has made efforts since becoming DPJ president to improve his relationship with the press, even agreeing, it’s said, to weekly press conferences.
The relatively neutral – even slightly positive – press coverage Ozawa has received since April is likely to continue as long as he presents a viable challenge to the conservative line of Shinzo Abe’s LDP. But I suspect that one serious misstep would end all of that. To the detriment of Ozawa’s ability to lead the Party, and the Party’s ability to expand their influence in Japan’s political world. That is, Japan’s political media is unlikely to cut Ozawa much slack, as the students here say, should he stumble.
Prior to his reselection as party president, Ozawa released a book describing his policy vision for the DPJ and for Japan. We’ll take up those policy proposals and their significance when we consider the DPJ’s policies.
That’s all we have time for today. Thanks for listening. As always, send your comments and suggestions for the program to me at RobertCAngel@gmail.com. I read them all and take them into consideration when preparing subsequent programs.
Now, last week we had to go without our usual Bluegrass clip at the end. To compensate for that, this week I’ve found you just a taste of bluegrass legend, Tony Rice’s “Sweet Sunny South. This from volume 5 of the Bluegrass Album Band, issued by Rounder Records in 1989. You can find “Sweet Sunny South” in iTunes, or order the whole CD directly from Rounder. Enjoy.
[bluegrass]
Goodbye all. Until next week.
