July 28, 2006; Volume 02, Number 28
of the
Japan Considered Podcast
[Listen to the audio file by clicking here]
Clink Links Below for Today's Topics
Good Morning! From the beautiful campus of the University of South Carolina. Today is Friday, July 28th, 2006. And you are listening to Volume 02, Number 28, of the Japan Considered Podcast.
Hot already here today. No hiding it! Though the weather is otherwise beautiful, and we’re looking forward to the cooler fall season. Thanks for tuning in again to long-time listeners. And a hearty South Carolina welcome to those of you who’ve found us for the first time. I’m Robert Angel, creator and maintainer of the Japan Considered Project, and creator and host of this podcast. Glad to have you aboard.
Special thanks to those of you who sent in comments and suggestions on the last program. Yes, as some of you noted, the effort here is directed more toward interpretation and analysis. Not at broad coverage of news about Japan. There are plenty of other sources for that. The down-side of the focus on interpretation and analysis here is that you’re pretty much stuck with my interpretations. And those, inevitably, reflect my personal experiences and biases. “Proclivities,” as one listener put it last week. Well, it can’t be helped. I’ve been at this for a while. Over four decades, now. And one does develop patterns of interpretation, at least. Hopefully, mine will be enough different from those of other commentators to make them worth your time.
Beginning Monday, the 31st, I’m planning to be away for about 10 days. So there will be no Japan Considered Podcast next week. That’s Friday, August 4th. If the bears, rattlesnakes, or panthers don’t get me, I’ll be back with you the following week, August 11th, to catch up with whatever’s happened in the interim. I’m sure we’ll have a lot to consider.
This week we’ll maintain our domestic politics focus, and consider events related to the LDP presidential race. Then we’ll turn to the Democratic Party of Japan. DPJ goings-on are very important. Both for the DPJ itself, and even for the inner workings of the LDP. But it’s much harder to get good information about the DPJ from the English, and even the Japanese, language media. More on that point in a moment, and what it tells us about Japan’s domestic politics.
News last week that Takeo Fukuda had decided not to stand in the LDP presidential race raised the temperature of this particular issue several notches. As we speculated some time ago on this program, the news of Fukuda’s decision was a huge disappointment to those within the LDP -- and outside the LDP – who’d placed their anti-Koizumi ABA [that’s “Anybody But Abe”] hopes on Fukuda.
Public opinion polling since the announcement has been quite limited. But it appears that Fukuda’s withdrawal hasn’t led to a dramatic increase in Abe’s poll numbers. It’s hard to tell at this point, since the polls available are so heavily politicized. That is, poll results are reported not just to inform the public, but to influence the opinions and behavior of the public. This is a phenomenon seen in all genuinely democratic societies. Including the United States. But it seems to me especially strong in Japan. Be sure to take the political views of the polls’ sponsors into account when evaluating the results they report. For example, Asahi polls are one thing. Yomiuri polls another. And Fuji-Sankei polls something else again. And there are others, of course. Those of you more familiar with political polling may have comments on this from your own experiences. So send ‘em along. When it comes to polling, I’m just a consumer.
Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki Announces his Candidacy
Yesterday, that’s Thursday, the 27th, Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki made the formal announcement of his intention to stand in the upcoming LDP presidential election. He spoke to the Japanese press and assembled supporters at LDP Headquarters, just down the street from the Kantei and Diet Building. During his prepared remarks, Tanigaki pledged to run a genuine issues-based campaign. Which is encouraging!
But in one respect, at least, an issues-based campaign won’t be as easy for him as it might be for somebody else. He currently serves in the Koizumi Cabinet as Minister of Finance. His policies as Finance Minister, presumably, reflect Prime Minister Koizumi’s policies. So, he can’t stray far off the Koizumi Cabinet policy plantation, so to speak, without resigning from the Cabinet. Something he hasn’t done, or hinted that he plans to do.
LDP presidential race front-runner, Shinzo Abe, Tanigaki’s most important competitor, serves the same Cabinet as Chief Cabinet Secretary. Abe has yet to formally declare his candidacy. But he’s running for the LDP presidency every bit as hard as Tanigaki and the others. And, so far, at least, Abe has described his domestic and international policies as the same, or very similar, to those of Koizumi. To the point he’s been criticized by the opposition as just a Koizumi clone!
So, what’s a sincere candidate determined to run an issues-based campaign to do? Well, Tanigaki, apparently, had given this some thought. During his candidacy announcement speech yesterday he emphasized three points. First, the need for the government, and for the people, to accept the need for an increase in the consumption tax rate. The rate’s now 5 percent. Tanigaki says it must be increased within a decade or so to at least double that. Spending cuts alone won’t balance the government’s budget, he says. And it’s time for everyone to face that fact.
This is a dangerous gamble. Will the LDP membership -- rank-and-file and parliamentary -- see it as a brave, frank gesture? Or will Tanigaki suffer the fate of Walter Mondale and other candidates around the world who’ve dared even breathe the words “tax increase” in their election campaigns? Or, will he be accused of becoming captive of his Ministry of Finance bureaucratic subordinates, who never saw a tax they didn’t like? When asked later what he thought of Tanigaki’s tax proposal, fellow economic cabinet member, Kaoru Yosano, replied that it was only natural for a minister of finance to worry about tax revenues! Ouch!
Second, Tanigaki described Japan’s relations with Mainland China and South Korea as “abnormal.” And said that they should be fixed. He repeated his pledge not to visit Yasukuni Shrine should he become prime minister. He compared the Yasukuni Shrine visit issue to a bone stuck in the throat. That is, a serious irritant. Though, one imagines, not life-threatening. He added that emergency communications systems among the government leaders should be improved with creation of “hot lines.”
It would be easy to dismiss Tanigaki’s mention of the Yasukuni Shrine issue and Japan’s relations with Asia as blatant political opportunism. Everyone knows that suspension of Yasukuni shrine visits will do little to settle real differences of interest between Japan and Mainland China. Or even South Korea. But, as a very knowledgeable informant reminded me this morning during a phone conversation, Tanigaki has been interested in Japan’s relations with Asia for quite some time. And since being appointed Finance Minister, he’s worked closely and effectively with his counterparts in China and South Korea. He’s smart as the dickens, and he knows the Asia-related issues.
This came through effectively during the LDP’s Tokyo Block Meeting held today in – well, Tokyo. This was the first in a series of such meetings nationwide. They’re the brainchild of LDP Secretary General, Tsutomu Takebe. Takebe hopes the meetings will allow candidates for the LDP presidency to debate important issues in a public forum. Before prefectural and local members of the LDP.
I was able today to see only brief video clips of the presentations. But it appeared that both Shinzo Abe and Sadakazu Tanigaki presented their views quite persuasively.
We’ve heard Abe on this program before. So, here’s a clip of Tanigaki explaining the importance of economic Asia, and the need for effective top-level diplomacy, to the assembled LDP members.
[Tanigaki Clip]
Some of you won’t be able to catch all of this Japanese language clip. But I hope that Tanigaki’s tone and effectiveness as a platform speaker comes through in spite of that. That you get a better sense of him as a candidate. In case we hear more from him in the future. Which we may.
So, it appears that there remains some hope that the LDP presidential race will end up as something more than a Tokyo coronation of Shinzo Abe as party president. Tanigaki has a very long way to go before we can describe him as a credible candidate. But at least he’s on the way. A credible challenge from Tanigaki would benefit the LDP overall, and even leading candidate, Shinzo Abe, in the longer-term.
Abe announced he’s leaving the Mori Faction
Speaking of Shinzo Abe, on Wednesday, Abe announced that he plans to resign his membership in the Mori Faction. Ahead of his formal declaration of candidacy for the LDP presidency. He added that he also intends to follow Koizumi’s practice of rejecting recommendations from faction leaders when it comes time to choose members of his cabinet.
Seasoned Japanese political commentators were quick to describe this as an effort by Abe to gain cross-factional support within the LDP. Maybe. But I think there’s much more to it than that. Rather I suspect that Abe’s move was intended to assure potential supporters that he’s not a traditional Factionist LDP presidential candidate. Especially given the timing of the announcement. Soon after news of Fukuda’s withdrawal from the race.
Also, in assessing this, it may be useful to think about the benefits and interests of LDP factions. Of what holds them together? This is a complex subject, better pursued when we have more time. But one important factor in this complex equation surely is the opportunity to use factional support for LDP presidential candidates as a means of getting one’s members placed in influential cabinet and Party positions. If that’s no longer possible …. Well …. LDP factions will have to change their stripes. We’ll talk more about this in future programs.
Other Candidates Making Rumblings
Abe and Tanigaki aren’t the only politicians with visions of the LDP presidency dancing before their eyes. Last week I offered a list of the most visible potential candidates. They included The Taros, Aso and Kono, Defense Minister Fukushiro Nukaga, Taku Yamasaki, and Karou Yosano. Earlier this week former Education Minister, Kunio Hatoyama, also hinted that he’d be available to serve should his nation need him. We’ll see.
One or two of these professed candidates are simply frivolous. Acting out of a genuine sense of duty, or family obligation. But others are more serious, and may eventually play a role in the race. It’s possible that ABA [Anybody-But-Abe] forces might combine behind Yosano, or even Yamasaki. Though I still think that Finance Minister Tanigaki has the best chance to become the ABA alternative. IF, a viable ABA alternative is to emerge. Speculation is cheap. And often wrong. So, we’ll just have to wait and see. We won’t have to wait long, though. Since time is running out for a viable ABA alternative to emerge.
The Democratic Party of Japan: Recent Developments
It’s been some time since we’ve taken a comprehensive look at the Democratic Party of Japan. Several times on past programs I’ve said “We’ll be sure to get to the DPJ next week.” Only to have other topics crowd consideration of the DPJ out, once again, when next week came. It seems as if Japan’s political news calendar has conspired to keep us away from the DPJ. It certainly isn’t my own lack of interest in their activities.
Unfortunately for the DPJ, the Japan Considered Podcast isn’t the only place that seems to happen. Earlier this morning, for example, I was watching video news from Japan. DPJ Secretary General, Yukio Hatoyama, was discussing the Party’s strategy during the upcoming elections. Halfway through clip, the cameraman shifted to a wider shot that displayed the room in which the news conference was being held. It revealed a roomful of mostly empty chairs. Only a few journalists appeared to be covering Hatoyama’s event.
Maybe that helps to explain why, even in the Japanese language news sources, information about the DPJ is so limited. True, coverage was heavy back in February, during Hisayasu Nagata’s celebrated Parliamentary e-mail fiasco. That was news! And the resulting selection in April of Ichiro Ozawa to replace the hapless Seiji Maehara as Party President also was well covered. Though that reflected attention to what I’ll call the “Ozawa Phenomenon” rather than coverage of the DPJ itself. There’s a difference, I think. And that may matter for the Party in the months to come.
This limited media attention is unfortunate since the Minshuto, or DPJ, plays an important role in Japan’s overall political party system as the second-largest Party on the national scene. It’s hard to understand Japan’s domestic politics overall without taking the DPJ into consideration. The degree to which the major opposition party offers a real challenge is bound to significantly influence LDP behavior . Including the role of factions within the LDP. But it’s hard to get even a superficial understanding of what’s going on within the DPJ from this distance because of the limited media coverage.
Still, I’ll make a few preliminary comments today, and urge listeners in Japan who have a better grasp of DPJ goings-on to write in with corrections and further suggestions.
Significance of the 2007 Upper House Election for the DPJ
As I noted last week, the DPJ took a terrific beating during the last general election, back in September 2005. It now occupies only 113 of the Lower House’s 480 seats. Not even a quarter of the total. Their Upper House total of 83 seats gives them just over a third of that Chamber, a bit more comfortable position. And the Party looks optimistically at the next Upper House election.
The Lower House can be dissolved by the Prime Minister at any time before its four-year term expires. But Upper House elections are regularly scheduled events. So it’s useful to know how those elections are conducted in order to evaluate the DPJ’s strategy and performance.
Every three years, half of the Upper House membership must stand for election. The 21st Upper House, or House of Councilors, election will be held next summer. Under the current electoral system, 48 members will be selected nationwide, through proportional representation from lists created by each Party. And 73 will be selected from prefecture-level constituencies. Each prefecture is allocated a number of Upper House seats according to their population. Under this system, Tottori Prefecture gets one seat, for example, and the Tokyo Metropolitan Region gets ten seats. The others are in-between.
Party President, Ichiro Ozawa, has made much of his plans for the next Upper House election, predicting that his Party will win a majority. That seems like a long shot. But it’s certainly not impossible. The DPJ did very well in 2004. Better than the LDP, in fact. So Ozawa and other Party leaders have been visiting prefectural branches throughout the country. Holding meetings. Discussing issues of regional concern. And paying close attention to the selection of candidates to run in the smaller constituencies.
Most of us know that Japan’s Constitution makes the Lower House more important than the Upper House. Indeed, during years past, the Upper House has been considered little more than a technical nicety, and received little serious attention. That’s no longer true. For at least two reasons.
First, and most obvious, should DPJ President Ozawa achieve his objective and gain a majority in the Upper House, the DPJ could delay or even block legislation passed by the Lower House. Upper House rejection, in most cases, would require the Lower House to over-ride with a 2/3 vote. A tall order. That would dramatically change relations between the LDP and the DPJ.
But even more important, I think, is the psychological effect a strong DPJ performance in the next Upper House election would have on Japan’s whole political system. It would energize the DPJ membership from top to bottom. It would vindicate selection of Ichiro Ozawa as party president. And further burnish his reputation as a political rain-maker. The DPJ once again would be seen as a “comer,” led by a brilliant tactician who had to be taken seriously. The bumbling days of Nagata and Maehara would become day-before-yesterday’s news.
And, it would make DPJ membership more attractive to potential candidates. Even to elected members. Perhaps even to some current members of the LDP. Nothing succeeds like success in electoral politics. Under-dogs attract sympathy and encouraging editorial comment from the political media. But seldom team members. A winner is a different matter entirely.
We’re out of time again this week. And remember, no podcast next Friday, August 4th, since I’ll be away. The following week I’ll do my best to continue our consideration of the DPJ and the DPJ’s prospects for the upcoming Upper House election. This is an important topic, worth much more attention.
In the meantime, I’ll leave you with another short clip from the incomparable John Duffey’s “Always in Style.” This, from “Hickory Wind.” It’s a real winner.
[Bluegrass]
Goodbye all. Until week after next.
