July 21, 2006; Volume 02, Number 27
of the
Japan Considered Podcast
[Listen to the audio file by clicking here]
Clink Links Below for Today's Topics
Good Morning from the beautiful campus of the University of South Carolina. Today is Friday, July 21st, 2006. And you are listening to Volume 02, Number 27, of the Japan Considered Podcast.
Thanks for tuning in. Again, we’re enjoying terrific weather here in South Carolina. It seems a bit cooler today. Though it’s still early. Generally speaking, we stop bragging about our South Carolina weather around late June. And don't re-commence until early September. If then! Other than July and August, though, it's hard to beat. And that's just the weather! Don't get me started on food and culture! Ah, nobody’s more fanatical than a late-life convert. I didn’t discover South Carolina until the age of 42. Sooo, that may explain it. But if you've ever had South Carolina barbeque …. Well …. You'd understand ….
Each week at this time we take a look at recent developments in Japan and consider their longer-term significance for Japan’s domestic politics and conduct of international relations. I always add the caveat that this isn't a comprehensive news source. And from time to time, that comment inspires e-mails asking where such a comprehensive news source on Japan might be found.
In response, the best one I've found, for the past few years, anyway, is “News On Japan.” It's free, and quite comprehensive. It features links to current English language news items on the web. The site's many links are divided into categories such as business, economy, politics, society, and even sports and electronics. Something for everyone. All English language. No analysis, as we have here. But much broader Japan news coverage. So have a browse on over to www.NewsOnJapan.com and take a look. After you finish with Japan Considered, of course!
This week we’ll return to domestic politics. Lots going on in international relations. But we’ve emphasized that for the past couple of weeks, neglecting domestic politics consideration. A number of you have written in to ask about the LDP presidential race. So, first we’ll briefly catch up with that . That’s important, of course, since it’s likely to determine Japan’s next prime minister. And there’s been an interesting development just today. Then we’ll take a look at the DPJ, and Party Leader, Ichiro Ozawa’s, efforts to wrest power from the LDP. Ozawa’s as smart as they come. And determined. But he has a tough assignment. Trying to keep the diverse groups and individuals that make up the membership of the DPJ going in one direction at the same time. Though we’ll be able to cover only the surface of the DPJ story, given the importance of recent LDP developments.
The LDP Presidential Race After Fukuda
All week rumors have swirled through the Internet and phone lines suggesting that Yasuo Fukuda had decided at last to remove himself from the LDP presidential race. After reading an Asahi Shimbun article yesterday that described him as the “dovish candidate,” I was almost convinced that the whole thing was an effort to encourage Fukuda to hurry up and announce his candidacy. So his supporters could get behind him more effectively. Well, it seems today that I was wrong. Too cynical, I guess. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
Earlier this morning, the major Japanese wire services, Kyodo and Jiji, started carrying reports that late Friday night, Japan time, Fukuda himself confirmed his decision in conversations with a select group of journalists. He said he’d already told Mori Faction leader, Yoshiro Mori. Fukuda gave several reasons for his decision, including his age, his decline in the polls, and his desire to avoid making the Yasukuni Shrine visits an issue in the race. When asked if he would support Shinzo Abe’s bid for the top job, Fukuda said that would depend on Abe’s policies. And he noted that Abe himself has yet to declare his own candidacy officially.
In weeks past, we've discussed the possibility that Fukuda, in the end, might decide not to stand. And the disappointment his withdrawal from the race would be for many potential supporters. Both within and without the LDP. Well, it seems to have happened. And the expressions of disappointment and concern already have begun to ring through Tokyo’s Nagata-Cho, and on to the wires.
Significance of Fukuda’s No-Run Announcement
What does all of this mean. It’s way too early to draw definitive conclusions. Especially since information at this point is so limited. And that available is so politically charged, given the importance of the issue. But I’ll offer a few comments, and as always, invite your reactions. Send them to me at RobertCAngel@gmail.com.
First, as most Japanese political commentators are saying, Fukuda’s definitive withdrawal from the LDP presidential race means Shinzo Abe is far more likely now to become the next LDP president. And therefore the next prime minister of Japan. It doesn’t, however, mean that there’s absolutely no chance he will assume the presidency unchallenged. But more on that in a moment.
Second, Fukuda’s decision may be comforting in the short-term to the LDP leadership. Especially to those who believe the LDP should maintain its traditional centralized Factionist organization. But I believe Fukuda’s withdrawal will disadvantage the LDP in the longer term. Especially if no other candidate for the LDP presidency emerges to give Abe some credible competition. That’s “credible” competition. As opposed to symbolic gestures made for the personal interests of the challenger rather than out of any realistic expectation of winning the race.
If Abe faces no credible competition, he won’t have any need to “run.” If he doesn't "run," the LDP will lose an important opportunity to explain its policy positions to the public, via the communications media. During public appearances while appealing for support throughout Japan’s forty-seven prefectures. Once again, it will seem that the LDP presidency was determined long before the actual election. That the mid-September party-wide balloting is only a legitimating formality. And that the Party is still being run by a small group of old men whose primary function is collection of money from those who can afford to give it, for political services rendered. Not good.
Possible Alternatives for the LDP
As noted a moment ago, lots can happen between now and September 20th, LDP presidential election day. One possibility could be the rise of a genuine competitor for the LDP’s top spot.
Several LDP members have either formally declared their intention to run, have hinted at their willingness to run, or have been mentioned by others as possible alternatives to Shinzo Abe. Should Fukuda take himself out of the race. None of them, though, have much chance of winning. At least not at the moment. But that could change during August and early September.
Their realistic prospects perhaps are best illustrated by the concern they have over attracting the twenty endorsements required under LDP rules to officially stand in the election. These potential challengers include, in alphabetical order, Foreign Minister Taro Aso, Senior Vice Justice Minister Taro Kono, son of Yohei Kono, now Speaker of the House, Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, former LDP vice president, Taku Yamasaki. and Kaoru Yosano, minister of state for economic and fiscal policy. Several others have been mentioned. But I think these five have attracted the most attention.
One gets the impression that Aso and Kono are discussing this because – well, they’re expected to do so. Maybe family pressures, or “living up to the name” sorts of considerations. Or maybe as preparation for a future, more serious, race. Tanigaki seems to me a more interesting candidate this time around. As incumbent Finance Minister, he certainly should have a grasp of economic issues, domestic and international, adequate to carry him through the race.
Yosano is interesting for much the same reasons. Perhaps even more interesting. But his views on economic policy may be too close to those of Abe to make for much of a public discussion. Yamasaki is a long-serving traditional LDP Factionist politician, once close with Koizumi, but since estranged. He may hope to appeal to LDP members who’ve become frustrated with Koizumi’s anti-factionist campaign. But he’s yet to prove himself the sort of leader capable of inspiring intense devotion in the hearts of his followers. Let alone appeal to the general public via the communications media.
Its certainly possible that anti-Koizumi forces within the LDP, especially those most opposed to Koizumi’s anti-faction efforts, might combine with opponents of Koizumi’s and Abe’s more straightforward approach to foreign relations, to create a credible level of support for an alternative candidate. This group might well appeal to LDP members who harbor reservations about the economic consequences of Koizumi’s reform measures. Shinzo Abe’s supporters seem to have captured the growing income inequality issue with their Second Chance initiative. But there’s much more than that to be discussed on the economic policy front.
Tanigaki as an Alternative Candidate?
Of those mentioned, Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki seems to me the best alternative at the moment. That is, if support adequate to raise the prospects of an alternative to Shinzo Abe should coalesce within the LDP. Tanigaki is a second-generation politician from Kyoto who avoids making enemies. Even when provoked. He’s quite well liked, in other words. And because of that, he represented the LDP ably for a time on the Lower House Steering Committee during a difficult period. He’s also a decade older than Abe. That might appeal to LDP members concerned about a radical generational change within the Party leadership with the 51-year-old Abe taking the helm.
Tanigaki was trained as a lawyer, and is known for holding quite conservative views. Though he somehow has avoided being labeled in the national media as offensively so. Before being appointed to his current post, he was Director General of the S&T Agency, Chairman of the National Public Safety Commission, and Chairman of the Financial Reconstruction Commission. He became Finance Minister in September 2003. That’s quite a record. Certainly it compares favorably with that of Shinzo Abe, or any of the others. Also, he makes quite a good impression on television.
About the only stain on his record I could find while going back through my “political stain” files, was the discovery two years ago that he’d failed to keep up payments on his mandatory national pension program. But he wasn’t alone in that.
So, will Finance Minister Tanigaki make a serious bid for the LDP presidency during the next 30 days? And, if he does, will his campaign attract any attention? It’s just too early to tell. Will Shinzo Abe’s campaign falter? Will he make a serious mistake during one of his daily press briefings? Those daily press briefings are described as a great advantage for him in his campaign. But they also could lead quickly to ruin if not handled properly. Will the persistent rumors of his health problems migrate from the Japanese political insider sheets onto the front pages of the mainstream media? We just have to wait to see. But at least we know what to watch for.
Ichiro Ozawa’s Efforts to Focus the Democratic Party of Japan
Developments today in the LDP took more of our time than anticipated. So we won’t be able to make a comprehensive review of the DPJ, as hoped. But at least we can consider how the LDP events we’ve considered are likely to affect the DPJ. And next week, hopefully, we’ll have more time to devote to the DPJ itself.
If anyone should be pleased with the announcement that Yasuo Fukuda had decided today not to stand as a candidate for the LDP presidency, it should be Minshuto President, Ichiro Ozawa. With Fukuda out of the race, there’s quite a good chance that the LDP will revert to its traditional Factionist pattern and select its next president “through consultation,” as the process is euphemistically described. That, as Ozawa well knows, means horse-trading among the faction leaders and more influential members in dark, smoke-filled rooms. To coin a phrase.
All else constant, such a development should provide Japan’s main opposition party with an opportunity that borders on the Heaven-Sent. Japan’s mainstream media is demonstrably hostile to Shinzo Abe, with his conservative domestic economic policy line and less accomodationist foreign policy. So, LDP candidates should be easier to defeat in the upcoming 2007 Upper House election, and in the next general election. Let alone in intervening local and prefectural races.
DPJ President Ozawa knows the inner workings of the LDP better than many of the incumbent LDP members themselves. After all, he was a member of that Party for more than twenty years. And he served three terms as its secretary-general, between 1989 and 1991. That’s one reason why Ozawa scares the dickens out of LDP members, old and young.
The other reason is the demonstrated sharpness of his elbows. Ozawa is never seen running away from a fight. In fact, if he has a particular vulnerability – beyond his acknowledged personal health problems – it’s the perception that given a choice, he’d really rather battle than barter. Such a reputation in politics gives an advantage at times. But it represents a serious disadvantage at others. It all depends on what needs to be accomplished to compete effectively. More on that point later.
Ichiro Ozawa certainly has his work cut out for him when it comes to preparing the DPJ to win a majority in Japan’s Diet. And assume control of the central government. Created in 1998 from a disparate group of former political parties and pseudo-parties, the DPJ now has only 113 Lower and 83 Upper House seats, out of a total of 480 and 242 respectively. That’s after the Party’s disastrous performance in the last Lower House election, when it lost over a third of its whole Lower House membership, or 62 seats.
So, with artificially depressed parliamentary membership numbers, and with opposition that has aroused the hostility of Japan’s mainstream press with its conservative domestic and international policies, Ozawa and the DPJ can hardly lose – can they? Especially now, since Fukuda’s withdrawal from the LDP presidential race has every possibility of making that Party appear to have reverted to its traditional Factionist past. The True Voice of Reform against the Entrenched Old Guard. Time for a change. But taking advantage of this heaven-sent opportunity will require Party President Ozawa to keep his disparate band of Party members all moving in the same direction. A task that makes university faculty governance look like child’s play.
More on the inner workings and prospects of the DPJ next week. But that’s all we have time for today. As usual, please continue to send your comments and suggestions for the program directly to me at RobertCAngel@gmail.com. I read them all and take each one into consideration when preparing for the following Friday.
Speaking of e-mail, I’ve received a great number of them complaining about omission of the bluegrass clip at the end of the program. Well, two e-mails, anyway. But both were most persuasive in their arguments. So, we’ll go out today with a special treat. The closing bars of the incomparable John Duffey’s “Walk Through This World With Me.” You can buy the album through iTunes, or click here for the Sugar Hill link. Ah, we miss you, John. Nobody comes even close.
[bluegrass]
Goodbye all. Until next week.
