April 28, 2006; Volume 02, Number 16
of the
Japan Considered Podcast
[Listen to the audio file by clicking here]
Clink Links Below for Today's Topics
| Introduction |
| The Chiba # 7 By-Election |
| Selection of Saito as the LDP’s Candidate |
| The Campaign and Outcome |
| Significance of the Chiba By-Election |
| Concluding Comments |
Good Morning from the beautiful campus of the University of South Carolina. Today is Friday, April 28 th, 2006. And you are listening to Volume 02, Number 16, of the Japan Considered Podcast.
I’m Robert Angel, creator and maintainer of the Japan Considered Project, and creator of this Podcast. Welcome to all, and thanks for tuning in. Both long-time listeners, and any new listeners who just came across the feed. You can find out more about the podcast, and about the Japan Considered Project at the website. Point your browser at www.JapanConsidered.org.
I’ve included transcripts of all podcasts since January 6 th of this year, if you prefer the printed word to audio. Somebody must, since they get downloaded regularly, and in large numbers. You also have access via the website to the interviews with other specialists on Japan’s domestic politics and international relations.
Last week I was in Washington, D.C., visiting old friends, and attending an excellent session of the Washington Japan Seminar. The current chair, Professor Tomoko Hamada of William and Mary, assembled a galactic cast of paper presenters from around the country. Paper topics ranged from Jomon archeology to trends in Japanese hip hop music. One of the best meetings in years. Thanks to Professor Hamada for all of the hard work, and to all of her paper presenters.
Lots going on in Japan’s domestic politics and international relations since our last program, two weeks ago. That includes some important international developments we may not have time to consider today. This week I’ll spend nearly all of our time together on the DPJ’s win in the Chiba Lower House by-election and subsequent commentary. Since my assessment of the significance of the DPJ win is somewhat different than that of most commentators in Japan. [Return to Topics]
Excitement and anticipation returned to Japanese domestic politics late last Sunday night. Democratic Party of Japan candidate, Kazumi Ota, had defeated LDP candidate Ken, or Takeshi, Saito, in the Chiba 7 th District by-election. The election was called to fill the Lower House seat vacated by LDP Member Kazumi Matsumoto. Matsumoto resigned in January after three of his campaign aides were convicted of voting irregularities in the September 2005 election.
Throughout most of this week, Japan’s mainstream media and Political Punditocracy has celebrated the outcome of this David vs Goliath contest. The victorious Ota was an attractive and energetic 26-year-old with no college degree, and what might charitably be described as a “diverse” employment record. Her only political, or governmental, experience was a year of service in the Chiba Prefectural Assembly.
Ota obtained DPJ endorsement only after the decline of the Party’s fortunes following the Nagata e-mail fracas had driven away favored candidate, Akira Uchiyama. Uchiyama had run against Matsumoto in the 2005 general election and lost. Though he polled nearly 105 thousand votes to Matsumoto’s 119 thousand in that contest. Something important to remember. He had, however, secured one of the 200 Lower House proportional representation seats as consolation, a prize he was reluctant to risk in another election, given the Party’s declining fortunes. Ota’s determination in the face of adversity and her liveliness impressed some DPJ leaders. And they took a chance. A chance that paid off, in the event. [Return to Topics]
Selection of Saito as the LDP’s Candidate
The Goliath in this April 23 rd Chiba by-election stood for the LDP. 46-year-old Ken Saito entered MITI, now METI, as a career bureaucrat upon graduating from the University of Tokyo. There he performed with distinction in a number of posts. Well enough to be selected for post-graduate study in the United States. For his last post he had been appointed to serve as vice-governor of Saitama, Chiba’s neighboring prefecture. Prefectural Vice-Governorships in Japan are appointed, rather than elected posts. Though they require the approval of the elected governor and of the Prefectural Assembly.
Saito, in a phrase, represented what we’d have to describe as the ideal traditional LDP candidate. True, he had little connection to the district. But his qualifications were terrific. A reliable, capable candidate, to be sure. Interesting enough, though, Saito had not been selected through what we’d think of as traditional Party endorsement methods. He was selected through the public candidate recruitment process that had been established in 2004 by LDP President and Prime Minister Koizumi and then LDP Secretary-General, Shinzo Abe.
Koizumi, Abe, and like-minded LDP reformers, recognized open, public selection of candidates as a means of stimulating interest and excitement within the electoral districts before the beginning of a campaign. A way to involve a broader segment of the public in the process. The DPJ had used this method to select some of their candidates in earlier elections. And it seemed to work. In addition to providing another opportunity to bring the Party’s name before the public, the public candidate recruitment process was intended to assure selection of more attractive and articulate candidates who could appeal to voters via the media, especially television. Needless to say, it also was intended to weaken the role of the LDP factions and faction-tied local Party bosses in the candidate selection process.
In other words, the public candidate recruitment process had become an important element of the LDP’s Populist strategy, when viewed in light of the Factionist vs Populist distinction I’ve presented on this program over the past few weeks. It was one of the pillars of Koizumi’s – and Abe’s – plans to bring the Liberal Democratic Party into the 21 st Century.
Chiba’s public candidate selection process involved splashy television and newspaper advertisements that featured Koizumi and other Party leaders inviting interested members of the public to submit their resumes for consideration. The harvest this time around for the Chiba 7 th district by-election was especially encouraging. The Party announced that 221 applications arrived in total. Over half after eruption of the DPJ’s problems with the Nagata e-mail fiasco. Nagata’s tragic Diet performance made the Chiba 7 by-election appear to be a sure thing for the LDP nominee.
A screening committee was composed of twelve local and prefectural chapter representatives, and three members from national LDP Headquarters. They interviewed nearly 30 of the most promising applicants. And they ended up selecting Ken Saito! A remarkably well qualified candidate that any LDP Party boss would be proud to back. He was selected in spite of the fact that he had little or no connection to the District in which he was supposed to run. And, in spite of the fact that he looks like exactly what he is: a highly successful, upwardly-mobile career bureaucrat.
It would have been instructive to have listened to the deliberations of that selection committee. We’d learn a lot about the evolution of national electoral politics in Japan. Was support for Saito’s candidacy unanimous within that group? Or were there dissenting voices who feared that he couldn’t carry the district? Who, other than Saito, was given serious consideration?
That’s probably more than you ever wanted to know about the LDP’s candidate selection process. But I’ve given you all of that detail because I think it’s important. And largely overlooked. It should be taken into consideration when we try to assess the significance of this election for the future of Japan’s electoral politics. Short, and medium-term. Simply put, Saito was a splendid candidate. But not the candidate the LDP should have selected to run in that Chiba district in April 2006. [Return to Topics]
There were no surprises during the official campaign period, which began on Tuesday, April 11 th. No surprises, that is, beyond the high level of press coverage the by-election generated. More on that in a moment. District-level backers of the recently-resigned Matsumoto were described as reluctant to support the candidacy of the newly-arrived Saito. No surprise there. But in the end they did. With varying degrees of enthusiasm. Saito himself did his best, giving speech after speech in which he pledged to support Koizumi’s Reforms. LDP leaders recognized the significance of the election, and flooded the district with Party leaders, including Prime Minister Koizumi himself. A large number of the more popular newly-elected LDP Members of the Lower House were mobilized to support Saito and the Party. The LDP campaign began quite optimistically. But day by day, poll by poll, first concern, then gloom descended over the LDP camp.
The DPJ Camp presented a mirror image of their LDP opponents. Their campaign began with only modest expectations for their young, potentially problematic, candidate. Ichiro Ozawa had been selected to replace Seiji Maehara as DPJ President only a few days before the formal campaign began. Ozawa was still enjoying his honeymoon with Japan’s political journalists. So, for the Japanese political press, this became Ozawa’s campaign – against Koizumi, and Koizumi’s reform agenda.
Media observers were quick to link Ozawa’s assumption of the DPJ presidency to the Chiba election. He did visit the District, after much anticipation. Five times. He rode a bicycle around for a while, and smiled for the cameras. Other DPJ leaders visited as well. But the star of the campaign was Kazumi Ota herself. She proved her skill as a tireless campaigner repeatedly in speeches to potential voters. She turned out to be far more than young and photogenic. Time and time again she delivered her slogan, “Nobody Left Behind,” and elaborated on that slogan with effective, and effectively delivered, attacks on Koizumi’s policies.
Ota also proved personally tougher than expected. Rumors about her colorful past began to circulate during the campaign. Some accurate; others blatant exaggerations. Pretty nasty stuff. She sailed through the storm with minimal comment, head held high, leading interviewers time and again back to her basic message that Koizumi’s reforms were creating unfair divisions in Japan’s society that required correction.
All said and done, I believe it was Kazumi Ota who should be given credit for the DPJ’s win. Ota and the people within the DPJ who had the wisdom to let her run. Yes, positive press coverage of Ozawa’s selection as DPJ president helped. And the LDP’s incredibly inept candidate selection process helped even more. Ozawa’s bicycle rides through the District and the euphoric national press coverage they generated also helped. But in the end, the DPJ had the more appealing candidate – the candidate more appropriate for that particular district. And that candidate won. Ota squeaked to victory with a 975 vote margin. In a contest that a month before was the LDP’s to lose. Well, lose it they did. [Return to Topics]
Significance of the Chiba By-Election
So, what’s the real significance of this election and its surprising outcome? And how is it likely to affect Japan’s domestic politics? My interpretation is somewhat different than that being offered this week by the mainstream Japanese political press.
Most of Japan’s political journalists and commentators were delighted by the outcome of the Chiba by-election on the 23 rd. Once again, with a little luck, they would have a genuine Opposition Party to report on. No more dull descriptions of milquetoast interpolation efforts by the Opposition, as Bills proposed by the Koizumi Cabinet sailed through the Lower and Upper Houses virtually unchallenged. Hardly the sort of thing that generates bold headlines on the front page. Even if individual journalists were sympathetic to Koizumi’s reform efforts. And most weren’t. The excitement over Ota’s win seems to have led some of Japan’s political commentators to exaggerate the real significance of the Chiba election.
Most of the Japanese reports described the election as a contest between the newly selected DPJ President, Ichiro Ozawa and LDP President Junichiro Koizumi. A contest that Koizumi lost. Some of the more exuberant commentators went so far as to predict that the outcome of the Chiba by-election meant that Koizumi and his reform package were in serious trouble – at last. And that those members of the LDP who supported Koizumi and his reforms – especially Shinzo Abe – had been discredited.
Others concluded that the DPJ victory in Chiba proved that the Koizumi-Abe method of campaigning had finally lost its punch. That is, what we have described here as the “populist” approach. They predicted that Ozawa at the head of the DPJ would drive the LDP back to more reliable traditional, or “factionist,” methods. Ozawa had learned how to play the game decades ago, from LDP Factionist masters. Now he would be able to apply his skills to the DPJ.
I’m inclined to disagree with some, or even most, of this. First, this election was much more important to the DPJ, and to Ozawa, than it was to the LDP and Koizumi. A loss would have been a disaster for the DPJ. And a serious blow to Ozawa personally. But the LDP, with its remarkably strong position in Parliament, could better afford to lose in Chiba. For them it was more a public relations disappointment than a political disaster.
Second, I see the Chiba by-election outcome as exoneration for the “Populist” approach to electoral politics in Japan, rather than as a loss. True, LDP candidate Ken Saito did emerge from the “Populist” public candidate selection process favored by Koizumi, Abe, and their supporters in the LDP. But looking carefully at both candidates, it’s obvious that Kazumi Ota really represents the Populist model and Saito represents the typical product of the Factionist approach.
The point that interests me most, and the thing that may prove most significant in the longer-term, is what happened to the public candidate selection process for the Chiba # 7 by-election. Why did it produce a candidate like Saito who had to be parachuted into the district? LDP leaders today must be asking themselves, and those involved, that very question. It’s possible that they will learn from this mistake. Even likely. And that future LDP candidate selection committees will do their utmost to avoid the notorious errors made in the 2006 Chiba # 7 by-election. That would strengthen, rather than weaken supporters of the “populist” electoral model. In both the LDP and in the DPJ. [Return to Topics]
We’d better end here today. Consideration of those critical international developments will have to wait until next week. Thanks again for tuning in. Please continue to send your comments and suggestions to me at JapanConsidered@gmail.com. And check the website for transcripts and audio files for all of the programs in this series, as well as other information sources related to Japan’s domestic politics and international relations. www.JapanConsidered.org.
Let’s go out today with a short bluegrass clip. This time, “The Devil in Disguise” from Tony Rice. How can one human being bring this much out of a single guitar?
[bluegrass clip]
Goodbye all. Until next week. [Return to Topics]
