April 14, 2006; Volume 02, Number 15
of the
Japan Considered Podcast
[Listen to the audio file by clicking here]
Clink Links Below for Today's Topics
Good Morning from the beautiful campus of the University of South Carolina. Today is Friday, April 14th, 2006. And you are listening to Volume 2, Number 15, of the Japan Considered Podcast.
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I’m Robert Angel, creator and maintainer of the Japan Considered Project, and creator of this Podcast. Thanks for tuning in again. Both to those of you who are regular listeners and to those of you joining us for the first time. Each Friday I bring you around twenty minutes of analysis and commentary on Japan’s domestic politics and international relations. And when time permits, I add web audio tours of internet sites that offer useful information related to our two themes.
Continue to send your comments and suggestions for the program to me at JapanConsidered@gmail.com. And visit the Japan Considered Project website at www.JapanConsidered.org. There you’ll find transcripts of these weekly shows, interviews with other specialists on Japanese politics and foreign relations, and links to other websites that offer useful information about Japan’s domestic politics and international relations.
Next week I’ll be in Washington, DC. So there won’t be time to record a program for April 21 st. Regular programs resume, though, on April 28 th. So stay subscribed. I haven’t pod-faded, as they say, or given up. And, I’m hoping to run into one or two people in Washington who may be willing to offer some guest commentary for the next podcast. No promises, but I’ll try.
This has been quite a week again in Japanese domestic politics and international relations. Lots going on. First, news of Ichiro Ozawa’s selection as president of the Democratic Party of Japan continues to echo through the streets of Nagata-cho and Kasumigaseki. Japan’s media is all atwitter at the prospect of a real Party confrontation to cover. We’ll consider the implications of Ozawa’s selection for Japan’s national politics. Then we’ll briefly mention developments during the past week in the relationship with North Korea. And third, we’ll do a short web audio tour. A regular listener wrote recently to note I’ve yet to provide a web audio tour of the Japan Considered website. Must be the shoemakers’ barefoot children syndrome. So, I’ll try to correct that omission at the end of this program. [Back to Topics]
Ichiro Ozawa’s “Election” as President of the Democratic Party of Japan
Last week we considered the selection of long-time parliamentarian Ichiro Ozawa as president of the Democratic Party of Japan. Few informed observers doubted that Ozawa would be tapped to succeed Seiji Maehara when the time came. But the Party hoped to avoid the impression Ozawa’s selection was made “behind closed doors,” as the phrase goes, in the current political climate. Therefore, an “election” was held.
Former DPJ President Naoto Kan was persuaded to “challenge” Ozawa. DPJ Diet Members then were assembled at a downtown hotel to cast votes for their favorite. Nearly all of the Japanese media went along with the program. Newspapers, magazines, and television stations reported on DPJ “election” prospects throughout the week, and dutifully reported the results of the poll last Friday. This in spite of the absence of any real “electioneering” by either Ozawa or Kan. Both official candidates, in fact, at every opportunity promised to support the other, should the other win. At one point they were even scheduled to announce their candidacies at a joint press conference! More savvy advisers vetoed the joint press conference idea just before it happened. That would have been just too much !
Why the charade? And why did Japan’s media go along with it? The DPJ selected Ichiro Ozawa as Party president in the same way LDP Party presidents were selected during the “good old days” of the 1955 System. The leaders of groups of Party Diet members were courted. Each was assured they and their group members would be given every consideration in return for their support. This is an old game that Ozawa knows well, having studied it first under Prime Minster Eisaku Sato, and then under Kakuei Tanaka.
The Japanese media were willing to go along in order to have a contest to report. A contrived contest is better than no contest at all, I suppose. If you’re expected to report on a contest. But Ozawa has been no favorite with the mainstream Japanese media. He’s always good copy. But given their choice, most of Japan’s journalists would rather write about his failures than about his accomplishments. He’s just not the sort of fellow who easily ingratiates himself with political journalists. With a few exceptions, of course. But, a DPJ led by Ichiro Ozawa would surely provide more interesting parliamentary fireworks than the confused gaggle the party had become under the hapless Seiji Maehara. Moreover, Maehara had offended much of the Japanese mainstream media with his positions on foreign relations and constitutional revision. He’d become little better than Koizumi because of that . So he deserved what he got.
The Party, of course, had a better reason for going along with the election pretense. Party leaders feared that a genuine electoral contest for the Party presidency -- one that included prefectural chapters and rank-and-file Party members -- would generate hostilities that could stress Party bonds beyond repair. Such genuine electoral contests would likely generate intense debate over specific policies. Debate over what the DPJ actually stands for, beyond the desire to replace the LDP as the ruling Party. That, the Party could not endure. Since Party solidarity depends upon AVOIDING discussion of those issues. So, DPJ Party leaders hoped to settle the Party leadership succession issue quietly, with the cooperation of Japan’s mainstream media. And then watch gleefully as the LDP faced a genuine, disruptive battle to replace LDP President Junichiro Koizumi in September. [Back to Topics]
Significance of the Selection of Ozawa as DPJ President
And why do I keep harping on the subject? Well, I believe the difference between real electoral contests that include participation of rank-and-file Party members nationwide, and selection processes that involve only sitting members of Parliament, is quite significant. My division between Factionist and Populist selection processes. Significant in the way the contests are run. Significant in the types of political leaders the contests advantage. And, most important, significant in the capabilities of the individuals eventually selected through those contests, once they assume office. Populists and factionists become different kinds of political leaders.
The interests and motivations of Party members who are elected members of Parliament differ considerably from the interests and motivations of rank-and-file Party members. Those two constituencies, then, naturally require different sorts of appeals to attract their support. Factionists can speak privately and frankly to their Diet member constituents about fairly immediate personal benefits. Populists, required to address much larger constituencies, must appeal by explaining their positions on issues of concern to that larger population, and by committing themselves to a course of action once in office.
That means, successful factionist candidates assume office with quite specific obligations to their Diet Member constituents. Those obligations in the past have included appointment to attractive cabinet and party posts, and commitments to prior consultation on decisions related to issues of importance to the parliamentary constituents. Not to mention funding …
Populist candidates, on the other hand, assume office committed to promotion of policies of interest to the people who supported their candidacies. Their “platform,” or “manifesto,” as they’ve been called in Japanese. Their continued popularity, once in office, will depend upon their success in pursuing that “manifesto.” Or, at least upon appearing to try.
As a result, Populist office-holders can claim, with some justification, that they are implementing the “public will” as they push their agendas through the Diet and onto an often recalcitrant government bureaucracy. This leads, all else constant, to more effective central political leadership in a system like Japan’s. And a central political leadership more sensitive to public wishes and intentions. It also leads to broader public interest in government, and less public cynicism about the political process. That’s hard to consider a bad thing. Unless, of course, you disagree with the public’s wishes and intentions.
With the selection of Ichiro Ozawa as its new president, the DPJ has shifted noticeably from a populist back to a factionist approach. Seiji Maehara’s heart was in the right place. But he proved an inept Populist standard-bearer. Ozawa is an impressive political operative. But Ozawa will find it difficult to sustain the appearance of a skilled Populist once Japan’s mainstream media recovers from its current fit of amnesia. [Back to Topics]
Since his formal selection last Friday to lead the Party, Ozawa has been making all of the right moves. To demonstrate his widely publicized determination to change himself, he announced on Saturday that he intended to keep the Party leadership selected by his predecessor. No Saturday Night Massacre, as some observers had anticipated. Yesterday’s opponent, Naoto Kan, became Party Deputy President. Yukio Hatoyama remained as Secretary General. And Kozo Watanabe remained Diet Affairs Committee Chairman, just to mention the most visible posts.
All of Japan’s mainstream media continued to treat Ozawa respectfully, or at least fairly, throughout the week. Not quite a honeymoon. But undoubtedly better than he expected. Ozawa’s courtesy calls on politically influential groups, including Soka Gakkai, Keidanren, and the Japan War-Bereaved Families Association, all were reported with only a glimmer of cynicism.
Ozawa so far has been cautious in public statements that go beyond commitment to sincerity and good citizenship. He did criticize Prime Minister Koizumi’s repeated official visits to Yasukuni Shrine, since Class A war criminals have been enshrined there. But most of his effort has been directed toward electoral strategy, with an eye on the 2007 Upper House race. And how to handle Party nominations for Lower House single-seat constituencies for the next general election.
More immediately, he has the April 23 rd by-election in Chiba to worry about. An election necessitated by resignation of LDP Member, Kazumi Matsumoto, whose campaign treasurer was convicted of vote-buying. The DPJ has selected 26-year-old Kazumi Ota to run against LDP candidate, Ken Saito, a former vice-Governor of Saitama. Ozawa has yet to appear in the District to campaign with Ota. Instead he’s sent Naoto Kan and other Party members. Is this an indication of how Ozawa will operate in the future? Behind-the-scenes while others front for the Party? Or is he just waiting to make a dramatic appearance as the “New and Improved Ichiro Ozawa” once press speculation intensifies? Maybe it’s both.
So DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa’s first week in office went very well. No news reports of untoward fundraising efforts, temper tantrums, or even high-handed behavior as the new DPJ President. Perhaps the leopard has changed his spots. Or, more likely, the storm is yet to come. [Back to Topics]
Further Developments in Relations With North Korea
Last week we spent some time discussing the escalation of tension between Japan and North Korea. Our focus was on Japanese public concern over the abduction issue and the Government of Japan’s various moves to restrict the flow of hard currency to Pyongyang.
Tensions in the relationship with North Korea continued to intensify this week, with the abduction issue at the core of growing public concern. As early as last Friday, the 7 th, South Korean newspapers began reporting the Japanese government had confirmed the identity of the husband of Japanese kidnap victim, Megumi Yokota, through DNA analysis. The husband, the paper reported, was a kidnapped South Korean rather than the North Korean , Kim Chol Jun, identified by the North Korean government.
Japan’s Kantei and Foreign Ministry immediately labeled the report speculative, saying they were still awaiting results of the DNA tests. It wasn’t until Tuesday, the 11 th, that the Kantei released the DNA test findings. The announcement came in the midst of informal talks being held in Tokyo that were attended by representatives of all parties to the “six-party talks” on North Korea’s nuclear program. Talks intended to encourage Pyongyang’s representatives to return to the negotiating table. The tests showed that Yokota’s husband was an abducted South Korean, Kim Yong Nam, not the North Korean Kim earlier introduced as her husband to Japanese government officials.
Release of the report further weakened the reputation of the North Korean regime. The news overwhelmingly eclipsed coverage of the Tokyo meetings intended to re-start the Six-Way Talks. South Korea’s current government has downplayed reports of the large number of abductions of South Korean citizens by Pyongyang, as part of their conciliatory posture toward the North. But this report struck a nerve in the South Korean press, where it was front-page news from the 12 th onward.
Japan’s mainstream press reacted sharply as well, with even more editorials and commentary demanding the Government of Japan take action to force North Korea to divulge the truth about the Japanese who were abducted over the years. I was unable to find a single article from Japan, in Japanese or in English, defending the North Korean regime. All were critical. Highly critical, in fact. Which undoubtedly is the effect Shinzo Abe and his colleagues in the Kantei hoped to achieve.
The Koizumi Cabinet now would face little criticism should it agree to implement economic sanctions against North Korea, as demanded recently by LDP conservatives. It would face even less criticism were such action taken in concert with other countries, such as the United States. Could that be what Tokyo is waiting for? Perhaps. And perhaps we won’t have to wait much longer to see how Pyongyang will respond to the imposition of economic sanctions, rather than just the threat. [Back to Topics]
Web Audio Tour of the Japan Considered Site
I maintain a website devoted to information about Japan’s domestic politics and international relations here for the Japan Considered Project at the University of South Carolina. This Podcast is another part of that same project. I started the website with a few modest offerings in the latter half of 2004. Since then it’s grown considerably, both in size and in the attention it receives from readers. It now receives nearly 600 hits per week, according to the StatCounter service that keeps track of such things.
Direct your browser to the home page at www.JapanConsidered.org. That address really just redirects you to a much more complex web address here on one of the University servers. The page should display properly in all of the major web browsers, including Explorer and Firefox.
As explained in the homepage text, the primary objective here is to present only a few links to information sources in each category. Not the long lists found on most other sites of this sort. In compensation, I’ve provided a paragraph or two of assessment for each site that evaluates its strengths and weaknesses. Only personal assessments. But I’m the only one doing this. So that’s what you have to get.
If you click on any of the visuals on the Home Page, a small Flash movie pops up that provides audio and additional visuals explaining particular parts of the site. I had to resort to the Flash files since server space here at the University is at a premium. The Podcast illustration is the one exception. It takes you to the Podcast page, where you can find instructions for subscribing. Or you can download show transcripts or notes. Don’t miss the archive section on the left-hand navigation bar. All programs since the first one on November 18, 2005, are available.
Navigation throughout the site, I hope, is quite simple. The left-hand navigation bar stays with you. Each heading takes you to a different part of the site. A click on “Interviews” takes you go to a list of all interviews completed to date for the Project. Just today I recorded another interesting session with Dr. James Auer, the well-known specialist on U.S.-Japan military relations. He’s now at Vanderbilt University, heading the Center for U.S.-Japan Studies and Cooperation. I’ll have it up as soon as time permits.
The remainder of the links on the Nav Bar are self-explanatory, I think. Each takes you to a page of resources on that subject that I hope you’ll find useful. For some reason, after the interviews and podcasts, the pages most frequently visited are those on “Military Affairs” and the “Judiciary, Police, and Public Security.” According to the statistical reports, European browsers are especially keen on them.
A final note. Click on “Occasional Papers.” At present, only three papers are up. I plan to add a few more of my own – written, probably presented somewhere, but never published. Those of you with manuscripts you haven’t published elsewhere but think might fit with the objectives of the site are welcome to submit them for consideration. You don’t have an interview on the website to submit them. [Back to Topics]
Well, we’re a little over time again, so we’d better end here. Lots more to talk about on the Japan Considered website. But I hope you can find your way around unguided, if you’re interested. As always, continue to send your comments and suggestions – and your “occasional papers candidates” – to me at JapanConsidered@gmail.com. I look forward to hearing from you.
Let’s go out today with something just a little different. You may not recognize it immediately as from the Seldom Scene. But it surely is. From their 20 th Anniversary album. Here’s Mike Auldridge, and his slide guitar – known in larger cities as a resophonic guitar – playing “Stompin’ at the Savoy.” Enjoy.
Goodbye all. Until next week. [Back to Topics]
