March 17, 2006; Volume 02, Number 11
of the
Japan Considered Podcast
[Listen to the audio file by clicking here]
Clink Links Below for Today's Topics
Good Morning from the sunny and warm campus of the University of South Carolina. Today is Friday, March 17th, 2006. And you are listening to Volume 02, Number 11, of the Japan Considered Podcast.
Thanks for tuning in again today, both for subscribing and for downloading the audio file of the program. Your interest in the program makes the preparation time worthwhile. If you hear something you want to correct, disagree with, or just even keep, you can find a transcript of the whole program on the Japan Considered Project website. Go to www.JapanConsidered.org. As always, please continue to send your comments and suggestions for future programs to me at japanconsidered@gmail.com. I read them all, and get some excellent suggestions for future programs. [Back to Topics]
Over-Emphasis on the Democratic Party of Japan in Weeks Past?
Speaking of which, one of our most faithful and helpful listeners e-mailed last week about our coverage of the DPJ. “Why all the attention to the DPJ?” he asked. “Isn’t it about time to give the other parties a chance?” And, “Won’t the winner of the LDP presidential race become the next prime minister anyway?”
Good points all. Yes, during the past few months the only publication to give the DPJ more attention than the Japan Considered Podcast has been the Party’s own newspaper! Or it seems that way. How come?
No, I’m not trying to promote the DPJ’s electoral fortunes in Japan. Anyway, we’ll consider later on how overt support from abroad may well hinder rather than help an electoral candidate.
It’s true the DPJ’s leader has little chance of becoming Japan’s next prime minister. But today, the DPJ, for better or for worse, IS Japan’s leading Opposition Party. As such, its behavior will affect the behavior of the ruling LDP. The way the LDP conducts election campaigns, the way the LDP introduces and manages legislation in the Diet. And, the way the LDP interacts with Japan’s attentive public. So, we can learn a lot about Japan’s domestic politics by studying the battles over the DPJ’s leadership and party organization.
How will the DPJ, once it gets things sorted out, confront the LDP in the Diet and in the next general election? As a stable, reliable, party led by mature veterans of the LDP factional wars of decades past? Or will it have younger leaders who’ll emphasize public debate of policy issues, and challenge the LDP for monopoly of the center of public opinion in Japan today?
Of course, definition of that “center” also presents a problem. Recently, a Japanese commentator warned DPJ leader Maehara about his ostentatious criticism of Chinese military spending, his acceptance of constitutional revision, and his support for the security alliance with the United States. Those “conservative” positions, the commentator cautioned, risked driving the DPJ’s traditional “floating voter” supporters away in the next election.
Maybe so. But it’s wise to recall that during last year’s general election a lot of those “floating voters” floated on over to candidates of the “conservative” LDP. That’s a party long associated with just such views. And the LDP victory was just too overwhelming to be explained as the result of “Koizumi theater,” or by Koizumi’s ability to manipulate television coverage, as some commentators have suggested. The “center” of Japanese public opinion may well have shifted on such issues.
We political analysts the world over struggle to differentiate the “is” from the “should” in our work. That is, the struggle to remain objective observers who keep our personal beliefs or inclinations from determining the evidence we examine, or the conclusions we draw from what we find. The Cold War is over. More than a decade has passed even since the collapse of the “1955 System.” The attitudes of Japan’s attentive public must be changing. The challenge is to know how much, and in what direction. [Back to Topics]
So, now let’s move to the center ring, to consider the competition to succeed Junichiro Koizumi as president of the Liberal Democratic Party. Stakes in this race are even higher since the winner almost certainly will be selected as Japan’s next prime minister. This alone gives us something to think about when considering Japanese domestic politics. With an overwhelmingly dominant political party, the real competition for top-level political leadership occurs not within the Diet, or even within the Lower House of the Diet. But in that dominant political party. That colors the whole process. [Back to Topics]
First, we need to understand the formal rules of the game. Since the goal is to become president of the Liberal Democratic Party, it’s the LDP that establishes those rules . The Party also modifies them, depending on conditions, when it feels the need and can build a consensus within the Party. The next LDP presidential election is scheduled for September, just six months from now.
LDP presidents are selected by an electorate made up of LDP members of the Lower and Upper Houses of the Diet, and representatives of the LDP prefectural branches. Each LDP Diet Member gets one vote. That amounts to 406 votes at the moment. Three hundred additional votes are allocated to the prefectural LDP branches. They’re divided among the prefectures according to population.
Each prefectural branch is responsible for conducting an election in which party members and “friends” are eligible to vote. Those votes, according to the rules of the prefectural branch, are then given winner-take-all to one candidate, or divided proportionally among top vote-getters, depending on the branch’s rules. Most have adopted the winner-take-all rule.
Official candidates for the LDP presidency require endorsement of 20 LDP Members of the Diet to stand. As in most high-stakes election contests, timing of their announcement is considered critical. And pre-announcement campaigning and speculation all are part of the game. We’re seeing a lot of that now.
According to Party rules, LDP presidents serve two-year terms. Incumbents are allowed to run for only one additional term, for a total of four years in office. In unusual circumstances, the Party can extend the term of an LDP president who’s been in office for four years for one additional year. This requires a two-thirds vote of all LDP members of the Upper and Lower Houses of Parliament.
Yasuhiro Nakasone was the last LDP president to receive an additional year in office. That was twenty years ago. Prime Minister Koizumi has said repeatedly that he has absolutely no intention of serving for an additional year. Not impossible, but very unlikely. So Japan is almost certain to have a new prime minister after September of this year.
A final note on formal election rules. The prefectural branch elections naturally must be held prior to the final vote that includes LDP Diet members. Japan’s communications media now provides extensive coverage of those elections throughout the country. LDP Members of the Diet, with 406 total votes, substantially outweigh the 300 votes allocated among the prefectural chapters. But the prefectural chapter contests are quite rightly seen as a better indicator of overall public sentiment. And that is a factor the LDP parliamentarians must consider as they cast their own votes. [Back to Topics]
For several months now the Japanese press has identified four candidates to succeed Prime Minister Koizumi as LDP president. Two of the four have reasonable chances to win, given present circumstances. Two will struggle to avoid embarrassment. And, of course, others may appear between now and the September election.
The four are Chief Cabinet Secretary, Shinzo Abe, former Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yasuo Fukuda, Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, and Foreign Minister, Taro Aso.
Chief Cabinet Secretary, Shinzo Abe, is considered to be the hands-down favorite at the moment. That judgment is based on his showing in public opinion polls during the past several months. The polls vary, of course, according to the date taken and the sponsor. But on average Abe is top choice of just over 50 percent of the population to succeed Koizumi, and a bit more for poll respondents identifying with the LDP.
Yasuo Fukuda comes in a distant second, with barely ten percent, but his poll numbers have risen in the past month, and are likely to continue to rise. It would be imprudent to rule him out at this point. Both Foreign Minister Taro Aso and Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, however, are well back in the pack with low single-digit showings that make one wonder why they’ve even bothered. There may be other reasons, since neither is a frivolous person.
Let’s look briefly at the backgrounds of the two current front-runners. We’ll cover other potential candidates in future programs if their fortunes appear to rise. First, Shinzo Abe. [Back to Topics]
The first thing most commentators mention about Shinzo Abe is his age. He’s only 51. That’s a mere child in Japanese national political leadership terms. He didn’t even arrive in the Lower House until 1993. Though he is advantaged with an impressive LDP lineage, as the son of secretary-general, foreign minister, and near-prime minister, Shintaro Abe. He’s also the grandson of conservative LDP Prime Minister, Nobusuke Kishi. He’s a member of the large Mori Faction. As is his prime competitor, Yasuo Fukuda. And as was Prime Minister Koizumi himself before his elevation to the Purple.
Abe has spent much of his time during the past decade in the Kantei, or Prime Minister’s Official Residence, first as deputy chief cabinet secretary, under Prime Ministers Mori and Koizumi, and then as chief cabinet Secretary for Prime Minister Koizumi, where he serves today.
Japan’s media often lists Abe’s weak points as an LDP presidential candidate as his age, his membership in the Mori Faction, which includes his prime competitor, and his conservative foreign policy positions. They omit what seems to me the most significant weakness of all. As Chief Cabinet Secretary, Abe serves as the Cabinet’s official spokesman. As mentioned during earlier programs, he meets daily with Japan’s Kantei press corps. More than once most days. Each meeting gives him an opportunity to stick his foot into his mouth well above the knee. Given his conservative political coloration it’s unlikely the Japanese press corps would allow any error to pass unnoticed.
He keeps both feet on the ground, however, in these daily encounters. And he gains extra points for his cool demeanor under fire. Listen as Abe responds to an Upper House Budget Committee inquiry about Chinese Foreign Minister Li’s most recent provocative performance. Li used the terms “foolish” and “immoral” in reference to Prime Minister Koizumi during an internationally televised press conference.
[Sound Clip of Abe at Upper House Budget Committee Hearing]
Asked what he thought of Li’s performance, Abe simply states that it is inappropriate for the foreign minister of one country to refer to the leader of another using terms such as foolish and immoral. Even if you don’t understand the Japanese I think the tone of his response will convey his mature, balanced public demeanor. He could have made quite a performance of his response, especially considering the degree of provocation. He didn’t.
Some of Abe’s critics describe him as too bland to appeal to the Japanese public. But that doesn’t seem to be so, at least for the time being. Perhaps after Hisayasu Nagata’s colorful bogus e-mail parliamentary adventure, it’s even become an advantage.
In addition to his political experience, Abe graduated from the Law Faculty of Seikei University in 1977. Hardly Todai, but still he graduated. And then studied politics at the University of Southern California. By 1982, after a brief stint in business, he was back in Tokyo, serving as special assistant to his father, at that time, Minister of Foreign Affairs. [Back to Topics]
Japan’s media, until just recently, has paid much less attention to runner-up LDP presidential candidate, Yasuo Fukuda. At 69, Fukuda is nearing the age, even in Japan’s seniority-driven political world, where he must look at September 2006 as his last chance to sit in the chair his father occupied in the late 1970s.
Yasuo Fukuda’s background is even more impressive than Shinzo Abe’s. A graduate of the celebrated Azabu High School in Tokyo, Fukuda was admitted to Waseda University in 1955. That’s an impressive academic record, even for the son of an LDP politician! He also spent sixteen years in the petroleum industry, eventually becoming a section chief. Real business experience, in other words, not just an extended summer internship. He resigned from Maruzen Oil only after summons to serve as chief secretary for his father, who had become prime minister. Fukuda wasn’t elected to the Diet, however, until 1990.
Yasuo Fukuda too did a remarkable job as Japan’s chief cabinet secretary. He was first appointed by Yoshiro Mori in October of 2000. Mori proved to be one of Japan’s least popular prime ministers. In fact, he ended his term with public approval ratings in the single digits. That naturally made the life of his chief spokesman even more difficult. Talk about a nightmare job!
Fukuda performed so well under those difficult conditions that he was asked to stay on when Prime Minister Koizumi came into office. He continued to serve there until May of 2004, more than three and a half years in all. That’s a record for chief cabinet secretaries, I believe. The only possible gaffe I can recall came in early June of 2002 when Fukuda as chief cabinet secretary was quoted as calling into question Japan’s three non-nuclear principles. The ensuing row lasted less than a month, and ended without his resignation. No mean feat, given the nature of the issue.
Yasuo Fukuda has served quietly and effectively as a member of Parliament and a member of the LDP since his resignation as chief cabinet secretary. There is little question that he will continue his record of excellent service if selected to succeed Prime Minister Koizumi. [Back to Topics]
The April 2001 LDP Presidential Election
It’s been a while since we have had the opportunity to observe an open-seat LDP party presidential election. That is, one without an incumbent prime minister as one of the candidates. The last such opportunity was in April 2001 when Junichiro Koizumi surprised us all by becoming the 56 th person to serve as Japan’s prime minister. Until just a few days before that election, all knowledgeable commentators knew that former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto was a shoo-in. Well… maybe not all commentators. But those backing Koizumi must have been simply guessing … since I too recognized Hashimoto as the sure winner … And was foolish enough to say so at the time …
Koizumi and some other candidates were declared. But the others weren’t serious, and Koizumi simply lacked the factional support in the Diet required to make the grade. Further, he was considered something of an odd-ball by nearly everyone. Who campaigns for the job of Party president on a promise to “destroy” the Party? Further, no prime minister ever had a haircut like that!
No, Hashimoto would be the winner. Anyone who could count LDP faction votes could tell that. True, the prefectural party headquarters each would be given three votes, for a total of 141. But LDP Diet members together had 346, and most of those were organized by the factions. Anyway, prefectural votes hadn’t been a problem in the past. Well over half of the Party “members” belonged to business organizations that had close ties to Hashimoto’s faction. Hashimoto was a shoo-in.
EXCEPT. That’s not what happened. During the weeks prior to the election, “Henjin Koizumi” toured the country with Makiko Tanaka, daughter of the legendary Kakuei Tanaka, speaking before every LDP prefectural organization they could. The combination of those two proved formidable – and effective.
The prefectural chapters held their elections the weekend before the big vote in Tokyo. By the time the dust settled, Koizumi had won nearly all of the prefectural contests, and by significant margins. Japan’s journalists loved it. More fun than covering a U.S. presidential election, and without the headaches caused by listening to all that English! By Monday morning, the 23 rd of April, Koizumi had become “the people’s choice.” A breath of fresh air blowing into the smoke-filled rooms of LDP Tokyo headquarters. News on Monday that in the Tokyo election, Koizumi had won more than twice the votes Hashimoto received proved the end of the line for the former Prime Minister.
It was clear to all that at least for once that survival of the Party required the mighty LDP factions to bend to popular – if not populist – will and endorse what had become “the people’s choice.” [Back to Topics]
Well, that’s all we have time for this week. Tune in again next week when we will examine how the LDP presidential election campaign is being conducted this year, possible outcomes, and most important, the significance of this contest for the future of Japan’s domestic political system.
In the meantime, here are a few bars of “Big Spike Hammer” from Volume Three of the Bluegrass Album: the California Connection. Pick up the album at Rounder Records.
[Bluegrass Clip]
Goodbye all. Until next week. [Back to Topics]
