February 3, 2006; Volume 02, Number 05
of the
Japan Considered Podcast
[Listen to the audio file by clicking here]
Clink Links Below for Today's Topics
| Introduction |
| Corrections |
| Japan’s relations with China |
| Japan’s Other Parties: the SDP and the JCP |
| Concluding Comments |
Good Morning from the sunny and warm campus of the University of South Carolina. Today is Friday, February 3, 2006. And you are listening to Volume 02, Number 05, of the Japan Considered Podcast.
Thanks to all for tuning in. Both to those of you who have been listening for a while, and to those of you who are joining us for the first time today. I am Robert Angel, creator and maintainer of the Japan Considered Project and this Podcast. I hope you find the program useful. And, that it wasn’t too difficult to find. Google and many of the more active podcast directories have been generous in their placement of this program now that we have a few programs on the air. I’m grateful to them all for the attention.
Each Friday we spend around 20 minutes considering recent events in Japan’s political and diplomatic worlds. There’s never enough time to cover everything. So we focus on those issues that seem to have the greatest long-term significance. You can find more information about political and diplomatic Japan on the Japan Considered Project website. Just point your browser at www.JapanConsidered.org.
By the way, for an excellent source of links to up-do-date news articles in English about Japan, point your browser to www.newsonjapan.com. The creators of this site do an excellent job of listing today’s news items under several categories. Business, the economy, the stock market, politics, society, sports, and so on. I have visited the site nearly every day since the time it first appeared. Somebody spends a lot of time and energy on it. NewsOnJapan.com. have a look.
Now, back to Japan Considered. A click on the big podcast button will take you to a special podcast page. There you’ll find instructions on how to subscribe via iTunes or another popular podcatcher. You’ll also find program show notes and links to the audio files for all earlier shows. Last week, in response to listener suggestions, I added transcripts for the last four shows. And I’ll put one up for today’s show as soon as I can get it done. Links to those files are right next to the audio file links in the show notes. So, look around, and send me your comments and suggestions at JapanConsidered@gmail.com. I read them all, and take them into consideration when preparing new programs.
Before we get to this week’s events, I’d better mention some corrections. Listeners were kind enough to write in to remind me that Senator Chic Hecht represented Nevada, not Colorado, as I said last week. Oh, my. How soon we forget. Also, two or three weeks ago I mentioned that the LDP had to face an Upper House election this year. That was news to several of our more observant listeners. They’d been assuming all along that the next Upper House election was scheduled for 2007, not 2006. Of course, they were right. Japan’s Upper House elections are held every three years, not every two years. Apologies for the errors. I’ll try to be more careful in the future. But errors are bound to creep in. Please continue to send in your corrections when you catch them.
This week, we’ll begin with an update of Japan’s relations with China. Then we’ll look at recent developments in two more Opposition parties, the Social Democratic Party and the Japan Communist Party. That should about do it for this week. Again, I’ll do my best to keep the show to around twenty minutes. No promises, but that’s the goal.
China’s “outrage” against Prime Minister Koizumi’s refusal to comply with Beijing’s demand that he stop visiting Yasukuni Shrine has quieted. The issue remains very much with us. But Beijing seems to have recognized, as we’ve discussed on earlier shows, that their direct protests were playing into the hands of their opponents in Japan. I have no reliable inside information about this. I base my conclusions on years of admiring the sophistication of the PRC’s international public relations and lobbying operations. They are grand masters of the art. And I knew that eventually Beijing’s top leadership had to recognize that they were only damaging their own interests with direct shrill protests to Tokyo.
Instead of the discredited frontal assault, Beijing has shifted to an indirect strategy to accomplish the same goals. Now they’re encouraging sympathetic actors in Washington, Seoul, and other capitals, to apply pressure on Japan to comply with China’s demands. In addition, they have encouraged opponents of Prime Minister Koizumi and his plans for political reform within Japan to carry the same message. That, of course, has been an easier sell. Especially as the LDP Party Presidency race heats up. Granting audiences with top-level Chinese leaders to visiting Japanese delegations and their photographers, for example, is a small price to pay for sympathetic statements once the groups get home. It’s also far more effective than the earlier ill-conceived tirades by official spokesmen. Most of Japan has heard enough of that.
One can only hope that Washington’s Asia specialists recognize the game for what it is. It’s nice to think that Washington could play peacemaker in this intra-Asian scrap, and at the same time further our own objectives in the region. Such an outcome seems unlikely, however. Its far more likely our well-intentioned efforts would offend folks in Tokyo whose support we will need later on, and that our efforts will not be as much appreciated in Beijing as we might hope. Better for Washington to stand just outside the ring, quietly expressing hopes that goodness and harmony will prevail in that part of the globe.
Japan’s Other Parties: the SDP and the JCP
Several listeners have written in to ask about Japan’s other political parties. We have talked a lot about the Liberal Democratic Party, and even about the Democratic Party of Japan. What, they ask, about the others? So today we’ll consider the Social Democratic Party and the Japan Communist Party. We’ll leave aside, for now, the tinier parties, and those recently formed primarily to qualify their candidates for government campaign subsidies. This is an ideal time to explore this topic, since both the SDP and the JCP have recently made announcements that indicate noteworthy changes in direction – the SDP looking backward and the JCP looking forward.
First the socialists. Earlier this week, the Japanese language press carried stories predicting that the Social Democratic Party would agree at the Wednesday, February 1 st, meeting of its Executive Council to return to an earlier Party policy position that labeled Japan’s self defense forces as unconstitutional. By yesterday, the story had reached the English language press, confirming the SDP executive council’s approval of the change on Wednesday. Executive Council spokesmen were quoted as explaining the Executive Council would present the proposed change at the Party’s annual convention, which is scheduled for next weekend, February 11 th and 12 th.
Yomiuri, Kyodo, and even the Japan Times reported the SDP with comment that the Party was reversing itself, returning to an earlier era. Japan Times made special note of the clauses that dealt with opposition to American military bases. Yomiuri was a bit more blunt, reminding its readers that the change in the Socialists’ long-held position on the constitutionality of self defense forces was made in 1994, while Socialist Party leader, Murayama was being allowed to occupy the prime ministership. They also noted that the Party changed its official name from the Japan Socialist Party to the Social Democratic Party in 1996. This all, presumably was done to enhance the Party’s appeal with the Japanese voting public.
Asahi Shimbun was more sympathetic in their treatment of the SDP announcement, directly quoting Party Head Mizuho Fukushima. Fukushima insisted in the interview that this decision was in no way a criticism of Prime Minister Murayama. It wasn’t even a reversal. Rather, it was necessary because the self defense forces had since 1994 been engaging in unconstitutional activities. Deployment to Iraq and to the Indian Ocean were mentioned in the article. The Asahi article noted that the earlier policy change under Murayama had failed to attract more voters. In fact, quoting Asahi, "The SDP was highly criticized for the change, and its popularity--and its representation in the Diet--have since shriveled."
Party Leader Fukushima assures us that this important change of policy is not “a throwback.” But it’s hard not to see it that way. It’s hard not to suspect that the Party leadership has concluded that with the DPJ shifting toward the Center under the leadership of Seiji Maehara, that the Socialists will be able to attract more voters from the Left than from the Center. They may be right. Maybe they will decide to re-adopt their original name as well. No evidence of that yet, though. And, given their disastrous performance in the last election, they really have little to lose.
If the Socialists are hoping to move the clock back to a more prosperous time, there is some evidence that younger members of Japan’s Communist Party are pressing their Party leadership to move their clock forward. Japan’s Communists have been the most disciplined, doctrinaire Communist Party to be found outside the classic Communist dictatorships. Its Party leaders have been able to enforce party discipline that Prime Minister Koizumi can only dream of during Diet interpolation. For that reason, news of discontent in the JCP ranks is well worth noting.
According to mid-January articles in both Asahi and Yomiuri, the JCP had decided to open central Party leadership to public criticism by younger, and regionally-based Party members. The Party held its annual convention for four days, beginning January 14 th. Both during the convention and in a piece in the Party organ, Akahata, younger Members sharply criticized Party policies. They objected to the Party’s decision not to run a JCP member in every electoral constituency. This decision had been taken reluctantly for lack of funds. It would be better, the younger members argued, for the Party to abandon its decision not to accept government subsidy of election campaigns. All other parties accepted the funds, and that put JCP candidates at a disadvantage. Quite revolutionary behavior….
Added to the unprecedented public airing of internal dissent, long-serving Party Chairman, Tetsuzo Fuwa, announced his resignation. He was replaced as chairman of the Central Committee by Kazuo Shii. Shii is a protégé of former Party Chairman, Kenji Miyamoto, who appointed him chairman of the Party’s Central Committee when he was only 40 years old. A mere youngster in Japanese politics. The elder Fuwa will remain active in the Party. there’s some concern that with him in the background, Shii will not be able to put a younger face on the Party. Maybe so. But these are indications that at least some of the Members of Japan’s famously rigid Communist Party wish to make it more appealing to the wider electorate, and not just the project of retired journalists, tenured university professors, and political hobbyists.
So what, you may ask? Just more Japan domestic politics “inside baseball” that’s unlikely to matter much beyond a few journal articles? Maybe. But I believe that the movements in the SDP and the JCP described above will be watched closely by the electoral strategists of the other parties, especially Seiji Maehara’s Democratic Party of Japan.
Within that Party, Takahiro Yokomichi, and his band of former Socialist Party members, will be especially attentive. Should Maehara succeed in imposing his centrist policy line on the DPJ, Yokomichi and his like-minded colleagues may well decide to leave. Return to their old Party would then be a good possibility. IF, that Party has not committed itself to impossible principles and objectives. Even a JCP transformed into a Euro-Communism look-alike could become a possibility. But one far less likely. Ichiro Ozawa too must be keeping tabs on the SDP developments, as he develops his campaign to topple Maehara from the Party leadership, with the cooperation of Yokomichi and his disgruntled colleagues.
Well, we’re nearly out of time again this week. Lots more to talk about. But other important issues will have to wait until next week. If I can make more sense out of it, I hope to discuss the significance of opposition to Prime Minister Koizumi’s political reform agenda, both from the Opposition Parties and from within the LDP. It’s a thorny, difficult subject, but one likely to affect Japan’s politics and diplomacy for some time to come.
Thanks for listening, and for subscribing. Again, visit www.JapanConsidered.org for access to the show notes, links to individuals and organizations mentioned today, instructions for subscribing, and links to the sound file and transcript for today’s show.
Let’s go out today with a few bars of progressive bluegrass music. This from Washington, DC’s Seldom Scene. It doesn’t get better than this. So listen to a taste of John Starling’s Gardens and Memories. This was recorded during the Seldom Scene’s 20 th anniversary concert in 1991 at the Birchmere in Alexandria, Virginia. A link to Sugar Hill Records is in the show notes.
Goodbye all, Until next time.
