January 27, 2006; Volume 02, Number 03
of the
Japan Considered Podcast
[Listen to the audio file by clicking here]
Clink Links Below for Today's Topics
| Introduction |
| Livedoor |
| Tainted Beef Imports |
| The Opposition Parties’ Three-Pronged Attack on the LDP |
| The Democratic Party of Japan Struggles with Leadership and Solidarity Issues |
| Concluding Comments |
Good morning from the sunny campus of the University of South Carolina. Today is Friday, January 27 th, 2006, and you are listening to Volume 2, Number 4, of the Japan Considered Podcast.
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Thanks for tuning in. It’s sunny here today, but still cold as the dickens. The outside thermometer indicated 33 degrees around 4 this morning! Normally, our thermometers don’t go that low. But today they did.
A South Carolina welcome to all of you listening to the show for the first time. And welcome back to those of you who’ve been listening for a few weeks, or since the beginning, even, in mid-November of last year. For the past couple of weeks we have been running far too long. Today I’ll make an even greater effort to keep the whole show to around twenty minutes.
Though, a lot’s been happening in Japan’s politics and diplomacy that we should at least mention. This week I’ll begin with brief comments on a few of the more important topics in the news during the past week. Then I’ll turn to the long-promised look at the potential and problems of Democratic Party of Japan, with focus on Party solidarity and the leadership style of current Party President, Seiji Maehara.
Of Note This Week
Early last week the Tokyo Special Prosecutor’s Office raided the offices of high-flying Livedoor Company and the home of its founder, Takafumi Horie. Their widely publicized afternoon raid, as expected, touched off panic selling of Livedoor stock, and an overall drop in the Tokyo stock market. There soon followed expressions of concern over entrepreneurial business practices, and calls from Nippon Keidanren management for a return of morality into the world of business. This week Horie and three of his colleagues were arrested, charged with violation of the Securities and Exchange Law – specifically, manipulation of their company’s stock price.
As anticipated during last week’s program, The Livedoor Incident quickly emerged in Diet debate. Prime Minister Koizumi and his colleagues were grilled repeatedly on their personal responsibility for encouraging Takafumi Horie to run as a candidate in the last general election.
More excitable journalists, mostly from abroad, were suggesting that the Livedoor Incident would end Prime Minister Koizumi’s career. That seems unlikely. But it fits conveniently into the political opposition’s efforts to discredit LDP accomplishments, and to compensate for their losses in the 2005 General Election. Combined with condominium earthquake vulnerability data falsification and a new crisis, the import of tainted beef from the United States.
Last week I avoided discussion of the economic implications of the Livedoor Incident, to concentrate on its political ramifications. Yesterday I talked by Skype phone with Dr. Edward Lincoln, a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Dr. Lincoln is the leading American specialist on Japan’s economy today. You can read about him in an October 2004 interview on the JapanConsidered website at www.JapanConsidered.org. I asked him yesterday what he thought the overall effect of the Livedoor fiasco would be on Japan’s stock market. He replied,
"There could be an impact on further cleaning up the stock market, and creating greater transparency so these kinds of things don’t happen. My guess is that that’s really not what’s involved here. We’re more likely to see a negative fall-out in which the kind of behavior – both illegal and legal – that Livedoor was involved in, becomes associated with being bad. Or inappropriate. Or un-Japanese. And that slows down the shift to doing the kinds of things that are involved here."
Thanks, Ed, that makes sense.
The Livedoor/Horie issue is complex, and hard to summarize in a sentence or two. Japan’s attentive public has mixed feelings about Horie himself, and therefore about the whole business. At one level, there seems to be hope that Horie's unconventional business style and brash manner will help to catalyze the changes that an increasing number of Japanese recognize as necessary.
At another level there is shock and embarrassment in response to Horie's often-trumpeted mantra that money is the most important value of all, that it can buy anything. Business community spokesmen, predictably, condemn not only the clearly illegal aspects of Horie's behavior, but even the gray -- legal, but unfortunate -- aspects, calling for greater emphasis on "morality" as well as financial gain in business.
At yet another level, for more thoughtful observers, the Livedoor/Horie flap represents the tension between an economy dominated by free markets, and an economy dominated by a watchful, nurturing, regulating, redistributing government of men. Will Horie come to represent the evils of a foreign "unfettered market" system in which government checks have been weakened in the name of "reform"? Will Horie and his excesses come to represent the true face of Koizumi's privatization reforms? That, as Dr. Lincoln, suggests, would be unfortunate. And that is exactly what the Opposition hopes have happen.
Once again, the United States and Japan are hacking away at each other on the export of American beef to Japan. This topic is a hearty perennial in the bilateral relationship. I remember it well from my years in Washington during the 1970s and 1980s. More than one Washington K Street public relations/lobbying fortune is based on that issue. The United States has long has been eager to export American beef to Japan. During an earlier era, Japan’s government, their backbones steeled by Japan’s domestic beef industry, was less than inviting in its response.
The beef issue endured for decades as a reliable theme for foreign pressure, or gai-atsu, during that golden era of international lobbying. It followed the traditional pattern of “Washington complaining; Tokyo explaining.” In December of 1987 it even reached the point that Tsutomu Hata, a former Agriculture Minister, was persuaded to argue in Washington that Japanese anatomy prevented further consumption of beef. Something about longer intestines … I’ve forgotten the details, now. But that’s not far off. Congressional Beef Caucus Member, I recall, Senator Chic Hecht of Colorado [of course, this should be Nevada], threatened retaliation through trade legislation if Japan continued to stonewall, describing trade legislation as a hammer held over Japan’s head.
Eventually Japan agreed to import more U.S. beef. But that ended with the discovery of Mad Cow Disease in U.S. cattle in the late 1990s. Exports were suspend for two years. The two-year ban expired last December. Limited U.S. beef exports to Japan resumed to great fanfare and optimism. Intestine length aside, Japanese consumers had learned how to consume American beef.
U.S. Beef Caucus celebrations came to a sudden halt when prohibited spinal column matter was discovered in a shipment of beef from the United States. The discovery coincided with the arrival of U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick. Zoellick was expected to demand full access for U.S. beef in Japan’s market. Instead, he ended up making elaborate apologies and explanations for the presence of prohibited matter in the American beef shipment. Quite a change from the earlier “Washington complaining; Tokyo explaining” pattern of bilateral relations. Give Zoellick credit, though. He did a good job in the new role, with very little time to rehearse his lines.
All of this represents an interesting shift in the conduct of U.S.-Japan bilateral trade relations. But in the short-term, it will prove much more significant in Japanese Parliamentary Politics. The hapless Brooklyn meatpacker unknowingly exported the third prong of the Parliamentary Opposition’s anti-Koizumi trident.
The Opposition Parties’ Three-Pronged Attack on the LDP
By mid-week it was clear that the 164 th Ordinary Session of Japan’s Parliament would be anything but peaceful. Prime Minister Koizumi’s Liberal Democratic Party enjoys an overwhelming majority in the Lower House, one that should make agreement on his grand reform plans a mere formality.
But that won’t happen. Sensing vulnerability, the Opposition Parties have decided to battle the vaunted Koizumi Reforms with a three-pronged weapon. That weapon combines the Livedoor stock manipulation scandal with the earlier condo earthquake resistance forgery revelations, and the recently-erupted concern over the import of tainted beef from the United States.
The Opposition, led by Maehara’s Democratic Party of Japan, will present all three of these headlines-grabbing topics as examples of the Government’s failure to protect the lives and livelihoods of the Japanese people. For them, this 164 th Ordinary Diet session will be the “Public Safety Session,” not the “Reform Session” that Koizumi & Company had in mind.
The result will be painful for Koizumi and his associates. But it will provide us with excellent political theater, and opportunities to learn more about Japan’s domestic politics. Maehara and his DPJ colleagues have been saying since the last election that the LDP’s success was a fluke. They sincerely believe they can win back the vast majority of the floating voters who were scooped up by the LDP last time around. Especially in the urban areas. These three issues appear to me to be tailor-made for just such a campaign.
So, now all the DPJ has to do is remember how Koizumi’s LDP appealed to all of those floating voters with campaigns appropriate for Japan’s new electoral environment. On both the Left and Right. The Party could, of course, revert to the old 1955 System strategies known and trusted by some of the more senior Party Leaders. That would guarantee the re-election of those incumbents. But it would end any chance the DPJ has of challenging the LDP.
The Democratic Party of Japan Struggles with Leadership and Solidarity Issues
Let’s turn now to today’s main topic: the challenges and opportunities facing the Democratic Party of Japan. The DPJ took a serious licking in the last general election. Still, it remains the largest and most dynamic of Japan’s national Opposition Parties. And, if it can get its act together, so to speak, it has a reasonable chance of giving the LDP a run for its money in the next General Election.
That, I believe, can be done only by the DPJ Leadership reviewing the bitter lessons of the 2005 General Election. Both their own performance, and that of the LDP. They must adapt their appeals for votes to the new Japanese electoral environment. In simple terms, they have to employ the tactics used to such advantage by Koizumi’s supporters in the last election. They must win back most of their “floating voter” natural constituency. And, they must chip away at the personalistic bonds that secure non-floating voters to LDP candidates. Bonds like those created by the enormously expensive personalistic koenkai. Success there will create more “floating voters” in the process.
The LDP’s solidarity problems pale in comparison with those of the DPJ. The LDP since its creation has been a “large-tent” Party. The ideological proclivities of its Members vary considerably. A classic Liberal like Kiichi Miyazawa often sits next to fairly hard-right Members at Party gatherings. But LDP ideological diversity is insignificant when compared to that of the Democratic Party of Japan, or Minshuto. The DPJ early on invited Members of the Japan Socialist Party to join them, and allowed the former Socialists to bring their ideological orientations with them. Today those former Socialists and their sympathizers constitute a significant bloc in the Party, and a real challenge for any Party Presidency.
DPJ President Katsuya Okada announced his resignation as Party President immediately after the humiliating loss of the DPJ in the September 2005 election. After a few days of maneuvering, former president and co-founder, Naoto Kan, contested the election with the younger, more conservative, Seiji Maehara. Maehara won that election by only two votes. He promised to lead the Party away from the old-style politics practiced by the more senior Party Members, including Kan.
Maehara was good to his word. He rejected the customary post-election calls for reconciliation and adoption of the traditional consensus-style of leadership and campaigning. He insisted publicly that a political party unable to take clear stands on important policy issues doesn’t deserve to be Japan’s ruling party. As if to make his point, Maehara stated clearly during a year-end visit to Washington that China’s rising military expenditures were a “threat” to Japan, a threat that had to be addressed. I described his presentation in an earlier program. He also stated clear support for Japan’s security relationship with the United States, and endorsed revision of Japan’s constitution.
And, he repeated those view in Beijing a few days later. His hosts, of course, were outraged, and the top leadership refused to grant him an audience. That didn’t seem to bother Maehara in the least. He recognized that, party politics aside, his standing with Japan’s public would benefit more from sticking by his position than it would from a top-level meeting in Beijing.
As expected, such clear-cut statements of policy incited vigorous opposition from within his own Party. Takahiro Yokomichi and his group of 30 or so former Socialist Party members have been especially vocal since. They insist the Japanese people really are opposed to such policies – in spite of poll results. But Maehara’s problems only begin with them.
Senior DPJ leaders and founders appear unified in their opposition to Maehara’s high-handed tactics. Outspoken critics even include Yukio Hatoyama and Naoto Kan. And hovering in the background is former Liberal Party leader, Ichiro Ozawa. Reliable political reporters wrote that Ozawa during his famous New Year’s Day Party made it known he would be willing to contest the next Party Presidential election if the Party really needed him. Ozawa, according to a year-end Yomiuri Shimbun political article, had offered last September through a senior DPJ business supporter, to support Maehara for DPJ President if Ozawa could be DPJ secretary-general. That was right after the 2005 election. Maehara is said to have declined. I’ve seen no confirmation of that report. But Ozawa doesn’t seem the sort of fellow who would quickly forget such a slight.
To date, Maehara and his immediate supporters seem unfazed by the criticism. Maehara is given near-daily opportunities by the Japanese press to renounce his apostasy. Each time he declines. Older Party leaders tell journalists they fear that Maehara’s uncharacteristic stubbornness will lead DPJ Left-Leaning members to bolt the Party and return to the Socialists. That could raise Socialist Party numbers back to respectable levels. Or, it could drive disaffected DPJ voters to shift their support to either socialist or communist candidates in the next election.
So, it’s hard to predict what will happen to the Democratic Party of Japan. Judging from his public statements, Maehara recognizes the change in Japan’s electoral environment. He also seems to understand the reasons for the LDP’s success in the last general election. He recognizes just how vulnerable the LDP’s current Lower House super-majority actually is. Can he translate those insights into significant DPJ gains in the next election? Only time will tell. The gift of three custom-made issues with which to torment the LDP should help. But his most formidable challenge still will come from within his own Party.
That’s all for this week. Please continue to send your comments and suggestions to me at japanconsidered@gmail.com. And drop by the JapanConsidered website to look through the links to resources, and the interviews. I hope to have another interview in the series up and running some time early next week.
Oh, and in response to e-mailed suggestions, I’ve added transcripts of the latest four programs to the program notes on the webpage. Drop by for a read, and let me know what you think? It’s not as much work as I expected.
I’m about out of pod-safe bluegrass music. Earlier this week I called the South Carolina Bluegrass Association to ask permission to use some clips from their music at the end of these programs. They suggested that I just buy all of the CDs, and didn’t seem to understand the issue, let alone what country school teachers are paid as salary. So, until something gets worked out, I’ll just have to stick with what we already have.
Which, by the way, has been wonderful. Both the Dirty River Band and The Wind Riders have been most generous with their excellent sound. It’s been a privilege to include them So, here to go out with are a few more bars on the Wind Riders’ “I Wonder Where You Are Tonight.”
[Wind Riders Clip ]
Goodbye all, until next time.
