January 20, 2006; Volume 02, Number 03
of the
Japan Considered Podcast
[Listen to the audio file by clicking here]
Clink Links Below for Today's Topics
| Introduction |
| Opening of the 164th Ordinary Session of the Diet |
| The Livedoor Stock Manipulation Flap |
| The LDP Presidential Race and Japan's Changing Political Environment |
| Concluding Comments |
Good Morning from the cool but sunny campus of the University of South Carolina. Today is January 20, 2006, and you are listening to Volume 02, Number 03, of the Japan Considered Podcast.
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Well, let’s face it. It’s something a little more than cool this morning. It’s downright chilly here in South Carolina’s capital city. Even cold! But still, with the exception of a couple of summer months when temperatures rise somewhat in excess of “warmish,” the weather here is wonderful. A great place to live, and to raise a family.
It’s been another busy week for political and diplomatic Japan. I’ll do my best today to keep this episode to around twenty minutes [effort failed]. Thanks to all of you who have subscribed, and to those who download each week’s programs directly from the Japan Considered Project website at www.JapanConsidered.org. Your e-mailed comments and suggestions provide encouragement, and make this new enterprise well worth the time. Keep them coming to JapanConsidered@gmail.com. I read each one, and save them for planning future programs.
The undergraduate course on Japan’s foreign relations here in the USC Department of Political Science continues to go well. We’re down to about 46 brave souls now, from the 50 or so who originally registered. Such attrition usually, but not always, makes for a stronger class. We had our first Inspirational Quiz on the assigned readings yesterday. Oh my. Not the ideal outcome. Looks like we require quite a bit more Inspiration to persuade folks to become familiar with those readings before class. Still, it’s an alert, talented, and engaged group. An instructor can’t ask for more than that.
We’ll begin the program with the opening of the Diet today, January 20th. Japan’s media is full of articles on the introductory policy speeches of the Prime Minister and key cabinet members. We will discuss briefly the themes of those speeches, and immediate public reaction in Japan.
Then we will continue the exploration of the Liberal Democratic Party Presidential election run-up that we began last week, with reports of some recent developments. Perhaps deserving a section of its own, we will consider the potential political significance of the eruption this week of news that the wildly successful Livedoor Company, headed by Takafumi Horie, sometimes known as Horiemon, is under investigation by the government for stock price manipulation. This is a complicated subject. As with other issues, we will restrict our commentary to the political significance. That's more than enough for one Program! If time permits we will look inside the Democratic Party of Japan, at the problem of Party solidarity facing Party President Seiji Maehara, and progress in the battle to succeed him. [Return to Topics]
Opening of the 164th Ordinary Session of the Diet
Today, January 20 th, Japan celebrated the Opening of the 164 th Regular Session of the Diet. This regular session is scheduled to run for 150 days, ending on June 18 th, unless extended. Quite a record, when you think about it. Japan has maintained a Parliament since the late 19 th Century, through thick and thin, even through the horrors of World War Two and the subsequent Allied Occupation. Few nations can boast such an accomplishment. In our analysis we tend to focus on the weaknesses of Japan’s parliamentary system, especially during and prior to World War Two. But we shouldn’t lose sight of this accomplishment and its significance.
There were no real surprises in either the speeches or in the Japanese news media’s reporting and analysis. Asahi Shimbun lamented Prime Minister Koizumi’s failure to include a solution to diplomatic disagreements with China and South Korea, and described his plans to continue reform efforts as vague. Other media outlets were somewhat more descriptive and less critical, as expected.
Asahi and other media outlets did note that Koizumi promised to continue pursuing reform efforts, building on preliminary success with postal reform, and reducing the size of government. He also promised a comprehensive review of Japan’s system of taxation and fiscal reform, including politically explosive issues such as the appropriate rate for the consumption tax and corporate tax. And, he mentioned review of the medical system, including apportionment of responsibility for payments, as well as efforts to create a social environment that supports families as they work and raise children.
This last issue in response to rising concern in Japan over the decline in population which began earlier than expected. Further, Koizumi stated plans to introduce in this session of Parliament a bill to revise the Imperial House Law in a way that will allow female members of the Imperial family to ascend the throne, and legislation that will determine the procedure required to amend the Constitution.
All observers agreed that the Koizumi Cabinet will face rough sledding during this current session of Parliament. Koizumi and his supporters hope to have it remembered as the “Reform Diet,” during which important “reform” measures were debated and passed. Nobody opposes “reform” in general. Just as most participants, regardless of political or factional affiliation, are able to agree on the desirability of “good government.” As long as they avoid specific definition of just what constitutes “good government” – or reform, agreement is easy.
Competition to control the engines of government intensifies parliamentary debate over the specifics, however. And Koizumi and his successors face plenty of competition. Rather than confirmation of Koizumi’s reform proposals, Opposing forces, both without and within the LDP, would much prefer to discuss other subjects. Candidates include problems of domestic security, such as the spate of violent attacks on Japanese school children, or the politically sensitive issue of government failure to prevent the falsification of data on big-building earthquake-resistance.
Recent Suspicions of stock price manipulation, and the political involvement of those individuals suspected, are certain to generate parliamentary fireworks this Session the Koizumi Cabinet would rather not see. The Imperial Succession issue we have discussed during past programs, and Constitutional Revision, are bound to add fuel to the fire. The struggle to succeed Koizumi as LDP Party President, and therefore Prime Minister, Japan’s ultimate political prize, will push debate during this session toward critical mass. And while this will distress Koizumi and his immediate allies, it will provide us during the months to come with outstanding opportunities to learn how Japanese government works. [Return to Topics]
The Livedoor Stock Manipulation Flap
Let’s now consider one of those issues likely to become a hot topic of conversation during the current Diet session. Late Monday afternoon Japan was jolted by news that prosecutors were conducting a raid on the elegant Roppongi Hills offices of Livedoor Co., and on the home of Livedoor President, Takafumi Horie. The prosecutors’ uninvited visit began just after the close of the Tokyo Stock Market, and lasted through the night, into the next day. Justification given for the intrusion was suspicion that President Horie and others in the company had conspired to inflate the price of Livedoor stock. This accusation, if proven, would constitute a serious violation of Japan’s securities laws, that might result in prison sentences for those convicted.
The Livedoor raid has both Economic and Political significance. Economically, Livedoor represented the leading edge of Japan’s “dot com” business sector. It has been unbelievably successful, starting as an internet service provider that grew enormously and skillfully manipulated its resources to buy more than 50 other companies.
Though Livedoor President Horie did his best at an early-morning press conference on Tuesday to stave off selling, his best wasn’t enough. Livedoor’s stock dropped nearly 15% on Tuesday, and on Wednesday the rush of sell orders caused the Tokyo Stock Exchange to suspend all trading 20 minutes early, a precautionary measure as trading rose toward a level that might crash its computer system. Within two days the Nikkei stock average had fallen nearly six percent. By Friday the Nikkei had bounced back, though the price of Livedoor stock continued to fall.
The “sharp-elbows” business model championed by brash young internet entrepreneur Takafumi Horie had lost much of its appeal. Nicknamed “Horiemon,” reportedly for his resemblance to a popular Japanese cartoon character, the “establishment” whose eye had so often been the target of Horie’s finger, was able at last to poke back. It wasn’t long before Japanese news outlets began to compare the Livedoor Incident with the WorldCom disaster of 2002. We must wait to assess the overall economic impact of the Livedoor Incident. But it’s of a size that will make it difficult to sweep under the rug.
The Political Significance of the Livedoor saga is likely to attract at least as much attention this year as its effect on Japan’s leading-edge tech industries and stock market. That is because Takafumi Horie stood as a candidate in the last General Election, encouraged by the LDP.
Horie, as LDP spokesmen now are nearly frantic to point out, ran as an independent, not as an LDP-endorsed candidate. But that was only because he refused to resign the presidency of his company to run. LDP Secretary General Tsutomu Takebe visited the constituency and gave a speech in his support. Since Horie ran against Koizumi Reform Opponent, Shizuka Kamei, Horie was linked directly to Koizumi, described in the Press as one of Koizumi’s Assassin Candidates. This and Horie’s unconventional dress, appearance, and behavior, attracted an incredible amount of press attention. In spite of this, traditional politics won the day, and Kamei retained his seat. A loss that must inspire considerably less regret among the Forces of Reform this week than it has since the September 2005 election.
Opposition Parties would be foolish to ignore the Livedoor Incident. It is especially handy for the Democratic Party of Japan. Unlike divisive issues such as relations with China, every member of that ideologically diverse group can agree that Koizumi and his LDP should be held accountable for their association with the recently disgraced Horie. The tragic suicide of a Horie aide, Hideaki Noguchi, in the wake of the investigation, will only increase public attention and add weight to the issue, to the advantage of the Opposition. Horie and Livedoor will combine with continuing investigations of the political and governmental involvement of key executives of firms involved in the earthquake-resistance data falsification scandal to cause headaches for Koizumi and his band of reformers as the weeks and months of the 164 th Ordinary Session of the Diet grind on. [Return to Topics]
The LDP Presidential Race and Japan's Changing Political Environment
Which brings us to the struggle within the Liberal Democratic Party to succeed Junichiro Koizumi as Party President, and what consideration of that contest tells about changes in Japan’s domestic political environment. Last week we reviewed the 2001 Party presidential race that brought Koizumi into office. This week we will consider the 2006 contest in light of that experience.
Prime Minister Koizumi has made it clear – so clear, in fact, that it would be most uncomfortable for him to change course – that he will step down from the LDP Party Presidency, and therefore from Japan’s Premiership, when his second term as Party President expires this September. He has served four years. Party rules, and tradition, allow LDP leaders to allow him one additional year in office, if selected – a faint possibility. But, as Koizumi told the LDP annual Party Convention in Tokyo earlier this week, he fully intends to step down.
This, for the first time since Koizumi’s selection in 2001, leaves the field relatively open, with no incumbent candidate. An Open Seat, as we’d say for House or Senate seats in the U.S Congress. There is no shortage of candidates to succeed Koizumi. Those with the best chances of success are coy when asked their intentions by the Press. Those with far weaker odds, and those suspected of serving as stalking-horses for other candidates, already have announced their intentions.
Names most frequently mentioned are Shinzo Abe, currently serving as Chief Cabinet Secretary of the Koizumi Cabinet; Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, Foreign Minister Taro Aso, and possibly former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda and former LDP Vice President, Taku Yamasaki. Among this group, Shinzo Abe is considered to be closest to Prime Minister Koizumi, and the odds-on favorite to succeed him. This in spite of his relative youth – he is only 51 – and inexperience in Party and Governmental affairs, when compared with the other candidates. Opinion polls consistently show him favored by around 44 percent of the general public to succeed Koizumi, with other candidates receiving well below ten percent in the same polls.
So, smart money is backing Shinzo Abe at the moment to succeed Koizumi. But smart money can be lost. As Chief Cabinet Secretary and Official Government Spokesman, Abe holds one of the most dangerous jobs in government. He spends much of his time briefing the press. Opportunities for “slips-of-the-tongue” are frequent. Only skilled journalists are assigned to the Kantei Press Club. And one important journalistic skill is to get official spokesmen to say something they didn’t intend to say.
It’s an old game, but one Abe has been playing surprisingly well. Recently the name of one of his secretaries surfaced as a point of contact in the earthquake data falsification scandal Diet hearings. This is bound to be brought up repeatedly in Diet debate this year. But Abe has maintained his composure. He handles himself surprisingly well in public under unimaginable pressure. He lacks Koizumi’s personal style and flair. But, perhaps over-thinking myself here, his relative plainness may prove a relief to the Japanese media and public should he be selected to succeed the ever-flamboyant Koizumi.
Abe has been a strong supporter of Koizumi’s reforms, and has maintained a hard line on relations with China and South Korea. Visits to Yasukuni Shrine by Japanese Prime Ministers are fine with him, and he strongly supports constitutional revision and the security relationship with the United States. Foreign Minister Aso and Finance Minister Tanigaki too make a point of their support for political and economic reform, as well as Koizumi’s foreign policies.
Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda and Former LDP Vice President Taku Yamasaki both appear to have decided to differentiate themselves from Koizumi, and the candidates who follow his line, by publicly calling for Koizumi to suspend his visits to Yasukuni Shrine as a means of improving relations with Japan’s Asian neighbors. It appears they expect public concern to increase over China’s decision to boycott top-level diplomatic relations with Japan until Tokyo gives in to their Yasukuni visit demands. Or, perhaps, they may have concluded that support for a more conciliatory line on Asian diplomacy will make them more attractive to other LDP leaders, including the faction leaders who will play an important role in the next LDP presidential election.
It is far too early to predict the outcome of the LDP Party Presidential race at this time. Conditions have changed from what they were during the height of the 1955 System. Few people know more about LDP Presidential Elections, and the Party leaders they have produced than SAIS Professor Nathaniel Thayer. During an August 15, 2005 interview for Japan Considered, a month before the last general election, he commented:
"I don’t know who the next Prime Minister is going to be. Nobody knows who the next prime minister is going to be. In the Sixties I could write a paper and predict with great accuracy who were the three candidates, and which one would probably win. I was more right than wrong during that period of stability in Japanese politics."
That predictability was possible under the 1955 System because LDP Presidential contests were dominated by the Party elite, by the leaders of the personalistic factions in the Party. Those factions existed primarily to coordinate the vote for Party President. Leaders of the larger factions could aspire to the top post themselves, or aspire to serve as kingmakers. For leaders of smaller factions, party presidential elections, and the anticipation of those elections, were opportunities to negotiate other benefits, such as placement of themselves or their faction members in choice Party or Government posts. Or, perhaps, sometimes even hard cash …. Though that is just a rumor …
LDP factions and their leaders remain important. A number of articles have appeared recently describing the demise of the LDP’s personalistic factions. They all are premature, in my view. Faction leaders have it tougher today than they did ten or twenty years ago. But it is foolish to ignore their continuing influence.
So saying, we also must recognize the rise of an alternative source of intra-party influence and political power – that represented most vividly today by Junichiro Koizumi. This is the ability to generate positive public attention, largely through the communications media. Popular appeal confirmed by public opinion polls and communications media image – especially television – that eventually translates into votes. Or, just as effective, into the perception that it WILL attract votes.
Political candidates skilled at this new, popular – or even populist, as some detractors have labeled it – strategy, appeal to voters through projection of a positive media image, including attractive stands on policy issues of public concern.
This is in contrast to traditional reliance on the enormously expensive district-level personal support organizations called koenkai. Candidates supported by a koenkai large enough, and cohesive enough, to guarantee their election, don’t need to worry much about how they appear on television. Mumbling, as humbly as possible, that they face difficult problems but nonetheless will do their best, while staring anywhere but the camera lens, is fine for them. It might even suggest sincerity.
This traditional pattern of Party and Election management made sense in decades past, with Japan’s medium-sized, single-vote, multi-member electoral districts and a relatively stable voting population. Urbanization, and the introduction of small, single-member electoral districts during the 1994 electoral system reform have changed that. Not suddenly, but gradually – a change that still continues.
With the percentage of the voting population supporting no particular party higher than the percentage supporting the LDP, the undecided or “floating” voter has taken on considerably more importance. Both for the individual candidates, AND for the LDP as a whole. Prime Ministers incapable of appealing to the public through the media may well drive voters away from individual candidates. Or fail to help attract them. The LDP can no longer afford to allow its Leader’s public approval ratings to dip into the single digits before finding someone more acceptable to the public.
Prime Minister Koizumi understands the change in Japan’s domestic political environment, and has made it work to his advantage. He demonstrated this in his 2001 race for the LDP Presidency that we discussed last week, and subsequently in his cultivation of the media and attention to his public image. Observers who remain unconvinced of the utility of his approach should study carefully the outcome of the 2005 General Election.
It appears that Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe, at least, has learned the lesson. It also appears that LDP Secretary General Tsutomu Takebe understands the change, and that he has integrated this new approach into his plans for the LDP Party Presidential election. Takebe has been advocating greater public participation in LDP presidential elections since late last year. A commitment to make the next Party presidential election more open was included in the LDP’s 2006 policy manifesto presented earlier in the week during the annual convention.
Takebe’s efforts have been criticized as thinly veiled attempts to support Shinzo Abe’s candidacy to succeed Prime Minister Koizumi. Such criticism may be accurate. But it misses the more important point that Takebe, as LDP Secretary General, the person who will guide the LDP through its next election, recognizes that the Party must adapt to changes in its electoral environment, and its management of relations with Japan’s voters. Upper House elections are held every two years. The LDP can ill-afford an electoral disaster there this year on the order of that suffered in 2004.
So there you have it. A description of two contending approaches to political management. The traditional Personalistic Faction/Koenkai model, on the one hand, and the Popular, or Populist, model of direct voter appeal through media, on the other. Both will influence the next LDP presidential election. But I believe the popular/populist model eventually will dominate. [Return to Topics]
Time has run out again. Next week we’ll look at how the other national parties are responding to these changes in Japan’s political environment, with emphasis on the experience of the DPJ.
Thanks for tuning in again. Send your comments and suggestions via e-mail to japanconsidered@gmail.com. I read each one, and consider them while planning subsequent programs. A number of you have suggested that I post transcriptions of the programs, with a link to the text file on the show notes. I hope to begin that next week, with previous shows done as time permits. Check the Japan Considered Project website, www.japanconsidered.org, for details.
Lets go out with a few bars of more quiet progressive bluegrass to carry us through the weekend and next week.
[Bluegrass Clip from The Wind Riders]
Goodbye all, until next time. [Return to Topics]
